“It won't be an easy negotiation,” he said. “The contracts with the Detroit Three are very thick and have many, many dimensions to them. They have the last contract to start with, and they’re for the most part trying to do tweaks to the last contract rather than completely starting from scratch.”

Workers at the VW plant that makes the Volkswagen ID.4, Atlas and Atlas Cross Sport in early December were the first to launch a public campaign to join the UAW following the union's strikes last fall against GM, Ford and Stellantis NV. The walkouts ended with four-and-a-half-year agreements promising top production wages to be over $40 per hour by the end of 2027, up from more than $35 today after workers received an immediate 11% hike upon ratification. The deals also included the return of cost-of-living adjustments, a reduced three-year timeline to the top pay and improved retirement contributions.

Following the tentative agreements, several competitors announced changes to pay scales — moves that the UAW said show the importance of employee representation in the industry. As a part of an annual compensation review, top-paid Volkswagen production workers saw an 11% pay increase to $32.40 per hour and the timeline to the top decreased to four years from seven. VW also this year added two unplanned paid time-off days for a total of five.

How far economic matters and other key subjects fall in comparison to the agreements with the Detroit Three could be relevant for future talks, especially regarding when the Volkswagen contract will expire. That will be important to VW, Robinson said.

“I would not have my contract expire anywhere near May 1 or April 30, 2028,” he said. “They certainly don’t want to be a part of the Detroit Three's (negotiations). First of all, they’ll likely end up out on strike. Secondly, they’ll likely be forced to have the same contracts that the Detroit Three chose. They’re going to want to have their own customized contract. If they get linked up, that will be the major loss for VW.”

Next up: Mercedes and more

For now, it's hard to overestimate the importance of the UAW’s win in Chattanooga, said Sharon Block, a labor attorney and former member of the National Labor Relations Board during the Obama administration.

“The UAW went into this vote from a position of strength, and they demonstrated strength throughout this campaign,” she said. “And I think that strength is going to radiate out from Chattanooga to the Mercedes plant where we'll have an election next month.”

Other experts said the UAW shouldn’t assume it will be such a straightforward path to victory at other plants — although they said the Mercedes facilities in Alabama do offer a relatively high chance for success.

Michael Innis-Jiménez, a University of Alabama labor historian and professor of American studies, said workers there have long been seeking to organize their colleagues, efforts that ramped up last fall.

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