NBA passes '3-2-1' lottery reform, move could impact Heat bid for Giannis, value of outgoing picks

Ira Winderman, South Florida Sun-Sentinel on May 28, 2026

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MIAMI — With the NBA’s Board of Governors on Thursday approving lottery reform to eliminate tanking, the impact of the changes could have consequences for the Miami Heat both in terms of the team’s pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo … or perhaps not at all.

Beyond the dramatic change in lottery odds that will punish the three teams with the league’s worst records, the overhaul comes with a caveat: the revisions will be adopted on a three-year experimental basis starting with the 2027 draft.

For the Heat, that reduces the impact from a trade perspective … because the Heat currently, by rule, cannot trade their first-round picks in 2027, ’28 or ’29, the result of owing the Charlotte Hornets a future first-round pick as a result of the January 2024 trade for since-waived Terry Rozier.

Under the terms of that deal, the pick due to the Hornets would be top-14 protected in 2027 or unprotected in 2028. By rule, because a team cannot potentially be without a first-round pick in consecutive seasons, that also leaves the Heat currently unable to trade their 2029 first-round pick.

Under that rule, if the Heat were to load up a trade proposal for Antetokounmpo with draft capital, they could select for the Milwaukee Bucks at No. 13 in the June 23 first-round of this year’s draft and then trade either selections in 2030 and ’32, or ’31 and ’33 (which becomes unblocked after this year’s first-round).

While none of those draft years would be impacted by the lottery revisions, the NBA typically moves from from experimental changes to permanency, as evidenced by recent replay and coach-challenge adaptations.

And that’s where fueling a trade proposal for Antetokounmpo with draft capital could prove perilous, with the NBA flattening lottery odds under the changes to the degree that it no longer would require finishing at the bottom of the standings to have the best lottery odds.

Under what has been dubbed the “3-2-1” system, the lottery hopper will contain 37 logoed ping-pong balls:

— The seven teams that miss the playoffs and play-in but do not finish in the bottom three would receive three balls apiece in the lottery hopper utilized to determine the order of the 16 lottery selections. Those teams each would have an 8.1% chance for the top overall selection.

— The teams that finish with the three worst records, as well as the Nos. 9-10 teams after the play-in tournament, a total of seven teams, would receive two balls in the lottery hopper. Those teams each would have a 5.4% chance for the top overall selection.

— The losers of the No. 7-8 play-in games would receive one ball in the lottery hopper. Those two teams would have a 2.7% chance of the top overall selection.

So, if, in fact, the system is retained beyond the three-year trial, it could significantly enhance the value of Heat picks potentially sent to the Bucks in a trade for Antetokounmpo (or, of course, potentially sent elsewhere in a trade).

To a degree, that either could have fewer teams willing to part with picks to the degree that the Heat seemingly seem willing … or it could have the Bucks instead seeking first-round picks in the three-year trial period (2027, ’28, ’29).

Also, as part of the changes, teams no longer can trade picks that include protections for lottery slots Nos. 12-15. The Heat, however, are grandfathered into the previous rules when it comes to the protection for the pick due the Hornets. That keeps the 2027 pick protected for the Heat should their selection wind up Nos. 1-14. Instead of writing the terms of the trade with Charlotte as “lottery protected,” it was written as “top 14-protected” in case of the realized lottery reform.

Another factor in the lottery reform is broad power of the commissioner to penalize teams for tanking, including fines up to $10 million, forfeiture of draft picks, reduced lottery odds or the change of draft position.

This past season, with the bottom third of the league tanking, records elsewhere became inflated to the degree that even at 43-39, the Heat wound up No. 10 in the East, their same seed as when they finished 37-45 in 2024-25. A 43-39 record in 2024-25 would have placed the Heat at No. 7.

As for the Heat potentially being in the lottery in two of the three years following this year’s draft (one pick in those three years would go to the Hornets to complete the Rozier trade), no team would be allowed to pick No. 1 in consecutive seasons, nor be allowed to select in the top five in three consecutive years.

That latter restriction points directly at the tank-to-the-top approach of the San Antonio Spurs, who this season made it to the Western Conference finals after selecting Victor Wembanyama at No. 1 in 2023, Stephon Castle at No. 4 in 2024 and Dylan Harper at No. 2 last June.