Analysis: Is Orioles' Gunnar Henderson still a superstar? History says yes.

Matt Weyrich, Baltimore Sun on Sep 10, 2026

Published in Baseball

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BALTIMORE — Craig Albernaz has never seen anything quite like it.

What Gunnar Henderson accomplished at such a young age warranted the mention of his name alongside some of the sport’s all-time greats. He won the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 2023 and rose to the level of superstar in 2024, placing fourth in AL Most Valuable Player Award voting. The shortstop distinguished himself as a true five-tool player and franchise cornerstone the Orioles could build around for the next half-decade.

Albernaz has seen players like that before. What he hasn’t seen is a player of Henderson’s ilk go through such a trying season like the one he’s endured in 2026.

“I haven’t, just because Gunnar is such a rare talent, and he just turned 25,” Albernaz said. “What he’s done since he’s been in the big leagues has been overly impressive, and so when you are not getting the results you want, everything gets magnified because of what you’ve done. So, it’s almost like a double-edged sword with Gunnar.”

After a shoulder injury sapped Henderson’s power in 2025 and contributed to his OPS dropping more than 100 points year-over-year, he’s taken another step back at the plate this season. Though he’s hit 22 home runs, Henderson is on pace for career lows in batting average (.219), on-base percentage (.303) and slugging percentage (.395). To make matters worse, he missed Wednesday’s game — just his third absence all year — with a knee injury.

It’s a far cry from the MVP-caliber production Henderson proved capable of two years ago, when he was worth 8.8 wins above replacement by Baseball-Reference’s metric. This year he has just 2.4 WAR with less than three weeks to play.

However, this drop-off has precedent. Among the 30 players in MLB history to record an 8-win season at 23 years old or younger, four have put up a season below 3 WAR within the next two years: Cody Bellinger, Bryce Harper, Reggie Jackson and Al Kaline.

That’s pretty encouraging company. Bellinger cratered the next three seasons after winning the National League MVP Award in 2019, but his career caught a second wind in his mid-to-late 20s, and he’s either received MVP votes or been an All-Star three of the past four seasons. Harper struggled to follow up his 2015 NL MVP campaign but has put himself on a Hall of Fame track ever since. Jackson and Kaline are waiting in Cooperstown to greet him.

“The players that — from his pedigree — that have had some adversity, they always come out better for it and on the other side. And Gunnar is that way as well,” Albernaz said. “Being around him, seeing the way he goes about his work, seeing the way he’s in the clubhouse with guys, he’s a very team-oriented person. He puts a lot of weight on what he does because he knows the impact he can make. So, it’s weighing his impact and also the team aspect of it, in which Gunnar has a great grasp of both.”

It isn’t a foregone conclusion that Henderson reaches the heights of those players. Only Bellinger put up an OPS as low as Henderson’s .698 within that two-year range, so he has a large hill to climb offensively. Yet it’s still way too early to strip him of superstar status.

Plenty of numbers suggest Henderson has been getting unlucky, too. His .251 batting average on balls in play is well below his career average of .303 — an indication that he’s hitting the ball right at defensive players more often than usual — and his home-run-per-flyball rate of 13.3% suggests he should be putting the ball over the fence more often.

The weight of failed expectations has certainly taken its toll on Henderson this season, as shown by how he’s handled his frustration during and after games. But for a young player with all the promise in the world, there is still a very bright future ahead if he can reach out and grab it.

“For Gunnar, this is going to be a huge learning season for him in a good way,” Albernaz said. “I expect Gunnar — and [there is] still season left, and hopefully it gets extended a little more — but Gunnar, he’s a rare breed where he’s kind of done this to himself with the success he’s had early. So for him, it’s always learning. It’s always constantly learning and developing, and Gunnar has that mindset.”