John Romano: Freddy Peralta not as sexy as Tarik Skubal, but makes more sense for Rays

John Romano, Tampa Bay Times on Aug 3, 2026

Published in Baseball

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TAMPA, Fla. — Let’s begin with this premise:

The Tampa Bay Rays could have gotten Tarik Skubal.

We don’t know that for certain, but it seems like a reasonable assumption. The Los Angeles Dodgers gave up the No. 55 prospect in baseball and a couple other intriguing, but not scintillating, minor-leaguers to get the two-time Cy Young Award winner from the Tigers. Given those parameters, the Rays could have put together a similar package led by a prospect in the Nos. 60-75 range — they have four of them in the system — and several other decent up-and-coming players.

Instead, the Rays used a less-enticing package to get Freddy Peralta from the New York Mets.

The question is why? If Skubal could be acquired without giving up a top-20 prospect — such as Tampa Bay’s Theo Gillen ranked at No. 9 by Baseball America — why not go for broke and get the best pitcher available?

It’s a legitimate question, and there are at least two potential explanations.

First of all, the Dodgers could afford to approach this differently. And “afford” is the correct word.

The three prospects surrendered by Los Angeles are pocket change in the grand scheme of things. In the last three offseasons, the Dodgers have signed seven free agents to contracts totaling $1.6 billion. The Rays, conversely, signed 10 free agents for a grand total of $87.1 million. If you don’t have a calculator, that’s about $1.5 billion in less spending.

The point is, the Dodgers are not going to miss those three minor-leaguers. And, even if they do, they could hit the free-agent market in December and buy major league-quality replacements.

The Rays, on the other hand, depend on their prospects. Even if a potential Skubal trade wouldn’t have cleaned out their farm system, any loss of quality minor leaguers would have a long-term cost in Tampa Bay that far exceeds any concerns in Los Angeles.

The second explanation is less technical but more dispiriting.

The Dodgers expect to win the World Series. When your annual payroll exceeds $300 million, that comes with the territory. Anything less than a World Series appearance would be a huge disappointment in Chavez Ravine in 2026.

The Rays, meanwhile, may be leading the American League East, but their postseason outlook is not as grandiose as Los Angeles. Fangraphs had Tampa Bay’s odds of winning the World Series at 6.2% on Sunday morning. They had the Dodgers at 31.1%. You might disagree on the exact percentages, but the larger point remains true: The Dodgers are set up to go deep into October while the Rays’ chances are somewhat iffy.

If Tampa Bay’s offense was a little better and the bullpen a little deeper, it might be a different story. Back in 2021, when the Rays were the defending AL champions and on their way to a 100-win season, they did go for broke at the trade deadline. They acquired seven-time All-Star Nelson Cruz from the Twins to add some power to the middle of their order.

Unfortunately, Cruz’s numbers dipped precipitously in the second half of the season and the Rays were bounced from the playoffs by the Red Sox in the division series. It ended up costing them Joe Ryan, who had been a top-100 prospect in the years before and after the trade.

That doesn’t mean the Cruz trade was a mistake. The idea behind it was sound. With a realistic chance of winning the World Series, the Rays were willing to go all-in. It just didn’t work as well as the numbers suggested it would. And Ryan went on to be a mainstay in the Minnesota rotation with two All-Star appearances.

Which brings us to Freddy Peralta.

He makes the Rays a better team today, particularly with Shane McClanahan on the injured list. And he increases their odds of reaching the World Series, although not to the same degree as Skubal.

The difference is he didn’t cost a major prospect. The three minor leaguers the Rays surrendered — outfielder Aidan Smith, pitcher Gary Gill Hill and infielder Emilien Pitre — are all credible prospects but none are among Tampa Bay’s most prized possessions.

That could matter in 2028 or 2029. Heck, it could matter on Monday if the Rays do decide to go for broke and pick up a hitter by trading one of their seven top-100 prospects.

In the end, this is how the Rays operate.

They thread the needle between today and tomorrow. It may not be as exciting as getting the biggest name on the trading block, but it’s how they remain in contention most seasons.

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