Matt Calkins: Do the Mariners have a run in them? It's getting harder to see.

Matt Calkins, The Seattle Times on Jul 15, 2026

Published in Baseball

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SEATTLE — I keep hearing about how the run is coming. That magical month when the Seattle Mariners finally show their World Series prowess.

It’s happening anytime now, right?

Kalshi seems to think so.

The prediction website said the Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers was the second-most-likely World Series matchup at 8.5%, trailing only the New York Yankees vs. Dodgers. FanGraphs gives the Mariners a 71% chance of making the playoffs, which I suppose isn’t too surprising given that they are tied for the final wild-card spot now, but … man … it’s getting harder and harder to see that.

Former M’s manager Scott Servais used to harp on the phrase “track record.” That seems to be the impetus for the optimism. After all, look at this roster.

It’s replete with All-Stars on the mound and in the field. It has a rotation that has often been dubbed as the best — or, at least, the deepest — in Major League Baseball. There’s Hall of Fame potential youth. There’s a core that was one game shy of winning the pennant last year. So … what the hell have we been watching for the past three and a half months?

This team has screamed “break down” a lot more than it has “break through.” What has been the consummate image thus far?

Is it Randy Arozarena treating a foul ball with all the respect of a teenager asked to clean his room? Is it that same left fielder being the Mariners’ sole representative on the All-Star team? Is it bullpen mishap after bullpen mishap from manager Dan Wilson? This season still has 65 games to go — but you can make a case that this 48-49 Mariners team is shaping up to be one of the most disappointing in franchise history. And there’s a lot of competition on that list.

The first place to start is Cal Raleigh. I know, few expected him to match his majestic 2025, when he hit 60 home runs and finished second in one of the closest American League MVP races ever. But even fewer expected him to have one of the most jarring 180s in the history of baseball.

Cody Bellinger had a WAR of 8.7 when he won NL MVP in 2019, then two seasons later (after the COVID year) had a WAR of -1.6. Chris Davis had a WAR of 7.1 in 2013 before having a 1.1 WAR the next year. With a WAR of -0.2, Raleigh — whose .581 OPS would be the second-worst in MLB if he had enough at-bats to qualify — is bordering on that territory.

Then there’s Julio Rodriguez. I suppose the expectation is that the Mariners’ center fielder is going to turn it around in the second half as he always does. But that’s based on a faulty premise. Just because he’s done that in the past doesn’t mean he is going to do it again. I say this knowing he has still been one of the more valuable Mariners. He has a 2.5 WAR (fourth on the team) and a decent OPS of .747. But five years into his career, it’s fair to wonder whether this man is truly capable of being a superstar.

The same could be said of starting pitcher Bryan Woo. Fellow starter Luis Castillo has borne the brunt of the rotation criticism this year, and for good reason. The three-time All-Star has a 4.93 ERA. But he’s a 33-year-old who has shown signs of decline. Woo, on the other hand, is a 26-year-old who finished fifth in the Cy Young voting last year and has an ERA of 4.23.

In a way, this is good news. You have to expect the performances of the aforementioned Mariners to improve. A few weeks ago, we were talking about closer Andrés Muñoz in the same manner. That man hasn’t given up a run since June 14.

This team still has pitchers such as Logan Gilbert, Emerson Hancock, George Kirby and Bryce Miller producing solid results. It’s got second baseman Cole Young playing at an All-Star level, even if the voters didn’t recognize it. But there are problems. Lots of problems.

The Mariners have the luxury of playing in what might be the worst division in MLB and an American League that is largely struggling. Lucky them. Without that fortune, their season would look lost.

But even with that lifeline, they’ve been a slog.

They say the run is coming. Maybe. Right now, it seems the season is running away.

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