John Hill: 3 dark clouds over any Rays deal in Tampa

John Hill, Tampa Bay Times on Mar 19, 2026

Published in Baseball

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TAMPA, Fla. — A Tampa Bay Times story last week caused some readers’ heads to explode, detailing how the Tampa Bay Rays might pursue hundreds of millions of tax dollars for the team’s proposed stadium in Tampa.

I understand the reaction but let’s be fair: The Rays’ owners have been clear they may seek up to half the $2.3 billion estimated stadium cost from taxpayers. Maybe there’s something different about seeing that dollar figure in print. In my view, a politician in the current environment would have to be nuts to support such an outsized handout. Still, there’s time for an informed debate once we see a term sheet. That should happen soon.

But I want to address something else today — what I see as three big clouds hanging over any agreement to attract the Rays. Don’t get me wrong; it matters how much public money is involved, and it’s safe to presume that as the subsidy mounts, so will public opposition. (The Times reported Monday the stadium’s elaborate roof could cost at least $300 million more than thought.) But I see underlying problems with the timing, urgency and messaging of this deal that will only compound the backlash over costs. It’s a reminder of how big projects need all the stars to align.

Timing

The Rays want a stadium by the 2029 season, which means the various agreements with state and local governments must conclude by mid-year, with construction breaking ground in the fall. That timetable coincides with the 2026 elections, where in Florida, Republicans have targeted property tax cuts and government spending, while Democrats are campaigning on the affordability crisis. In short, politicians from both parties have boxed themselves in with populist promises. The ongoing U.S. war on Iran hasn’t helped, as gas prices rise with no end in sight.

Recent events outside Florida’s control have shrunk the already narrow space for Republicans and Democrats to coalesce behind the Rays as a priority. Citizens appearing at city and county commission meetings want help with rent, groceries and the light bill. Nobody is asking for a ballpark. One bad storm this hurricane season could further sour the climate. Tampa also will elect a new mayor and City Council a year from now. This deal is a tough sell in any economy but especially so now, with the public mood inward-looking and gripped with uncertainty.

Urgency

The Rays’ timetable is driven not only by its lease expiring at Tropicana Field but the owners’ desire for a heftier revenue stream. That’s one reason it chose to pursue a stadium at Hillsborough College, envisioning a mixed-use community in a working-class neighborhood in Tampa’s Drew Park, alongside Tampa International Airport.

That site seems like a dud, isolated and hemmed in by an airport and major highway. That’s the problem of having a compacted schedule for decision-making; it leaves little time to reimagine an established sense of place in the public eye. Whether you liked the Rays’ scuttled deal to rebuild at Tropicana Field, it was years in the making, and that long public rollout gave residents a clear picture of what the 86-acre development would look like. We had time to see the details, and provide public feedback, giving local residents more skin in the game. It also created the window necessary for civic leaders to champion the stadium project as a boon for the region.

Messaging

Tampa residents have a history with the owners of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Lightning. The new Rays owners parachute in, and residents ask: Why are we giving money to people we don’t know?

I raise that because Tampa is a tight-knit, working-class town you need to understand to navigate. Yet some of the missteps are mind boggling. College president Ken Atwater, for example, asserted that the buildout means his college’s tennis center “will be moved” to Tampa’s Al Lopez Park. That was news to the city. I also can’t imagine many worse places for it, given the park’s wooded setting and popularity as a natural oasis.

Similarly, the Rays plan would apparently uproot a 25,000-square foot office the Hillsborough County Tax Collector operates to serve nearly 1,000 people per day — many of them Spanish-speaking from the heavily Hispanic West Tampa and Town ‘N Country neighborhoods. “I have not been contacted by anyone about this,” Tax Collector Nancy Millan told me Monday.

It’s not that we can’t find workarounds for a tennis center or a government building. The problem is we’re rushing negotiations without thinking about the impacts or even talking to those who’d be affected. There’s a “throw-it-on-the wall” quality to this proposal, and the people behind it haven’t done their homework. That’s partly due to the weird, conflicted role Hillsborough College is playing as both middleman and beneficiary.

Hillsborough and Tampa officials should not rush a decision. Let’s get a term sheet and go from there. But there’s underlying headwinds in play, and some rookie mistakes haven’t helped.

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