John Romano: What do the Rays see that critics are not buying with this lineup?

John Romano, Tampa Bay Times on Feb 15, 2026

Published in Baseball

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PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. — They know what you think. They know you have doubts, concerns and complaints.

And, really, the folks in charge of creating ovations and memories in Tampa, Fla., do not blame you.

A Rays roster is never as straightforward as, say, the New York Yankees or Atlanta Braves. It’s more of an illusion. A sleight of hand. You go into the first weekend of spring training expecting to be underwhelmed, and the Rays end up pulling a pennant out of the hat.

When they are right, they are lineup magicians. And when they are wrong? Well, even Houdini occasionally got stuck in handcuffs.

“We’ve had plenty of seasons where the expectations were not terribly high and things turned out okay,” baseball operations president Erik Neander said. “We’ve had seasons where expectations were high and they didn’t turn out so well.

“I’m not a salesman. The only thing that really matters is once you start playing games, are we winning? Are we not?”

Like you, the critics are not enthusiastic about Tampa Bay’s roster. Baseball Prospectus has the Rays winning 81 or 82 games and finishing last in the American League East. Caesars sportsbook has the over/under on wins at 78.5. Fangraphs has Tampa Bay with 78.1 wins and, also, a last-place finish.

So what is it that Neander sees in 2026 that others do not?

The same sort of things that have helped the Rays sneak up on people in the past. Versatility. Depth. A strong bullpen. And just enough offense to win a lot of 4-3 games.

The 77-85 record in 2025 was so disappointing that it’s easy to forget that, in late June, the Rays were near the top of the standings, and computer projections gave them a 96.9% chance of making the postseason. And, as much as the roster was turned over in the winter, the skeleton of that team remains.

“We were in pretty good position halfway through the season and then we had a really difficult July where anything that could go wrong late in a game went wrong,” Neander said. “We still ended up outscoring our opponents by 30ish runs on the year. Usually, if you’ve done that, you’re probably going to win more than 77 games.”

By Tampa Bay standards, the Rays cracked open the checkbook this winter. Between pitchers Steven Matz and Nick Martinez and outfielders Cedric Mullins and Jake Fraley, the Rays committed $38 million to free-agent acquisitions. That’s not going to get them on the cover of Forbes, but it’s more than they have spent on free agents in any of the last 10 years, except for 2023 when they signed Zach Eflin.

And, unlike last season when 24-year-old Taj Bradley and 26-year-old Shane Baz combined for 52 starts with a 4.77 ERA, the rotation has a much more been-there-done-that feel. Martinez, Matz, Shane McClanahan, Ryan Pepiot and Drew Rasmussen are all between 28 and 35 with quality seasons behind them.

Going back to Tropicana Field after doing the Airbnb thing in Tampa, the Rays will return to a more pitcher-friendly atmosphere, which is typically the way the team is built.

“A lot of our successful years have been defined by pitching and defense,” said manager Kevin Cash. “It’s a pitcher’s ballpark. We’re aware of that. It’s our job to build a defense behind our pitchers that can defend really, really well at a high level.”

That was part of the reasoning behind revamping an outfield that was defensively challenged and limited as hitters last season. The Rays will be much stronger defensively in both center and right with Mullins and Fraley, and Chandler Simpson cannot be any worse than Christopher Morel was in leftfield. Gavin Lux doesn’t have a great glove at second base, but he’s likely got more range than Brandon Lowe showed last season.

It’s going to be a left-handed-heavy lineup and, considering 74% of MLB’s starts were made by right-handed pitchers last season, that should be helpful for Tampa Bay.

So is it all enough? Will the Rays be successful enough around the margins to make up for the usual payroll shortcomings?

Obviously, the oddsmakers aren’t impressed. Social media also hasn’t been kind about Tampa Bay’s fortunes for 2026.

Neander has other thoughts.

“We’ve got three (Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda) aircraft carrier-type offensive guys with a lot of depth around,” he said. “I think our defense overall is going to be tighter and a little more back to where it’s been in the past where you look up and we’ve won a bunch games and it’s not necessarily by scoring a lot of runs.

“It’s just by doing a lot of little things while taking care of the baseball, pitching well, playing good defense.”

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