John Romano: The Rays have not given up on 2026. They just like the 2028 odds more.

John Romano, Tampa Bay Times on Jan 22, 2026

Published in Baseball

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TAMPA, Fla. — The decline of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2024 arrived as something of a shock.

They were coming off five consecutive postseason appearances, and were among the handful of preseason favorites to win the American League pennant.

The further descent in 2025 felt a little less dramatic.

By then, Shane McClanahan was hurt, Wander Franco was a memory, and the Rays had traded Zach Eflin and Isaac Paredes.

Now, in 2026, those low expectations have become familiar.

Perhaps, uncomfortably so.

DraftKings Sportsbook has Tampa Bay just outside the middle tier and leading the bottom 10 in World Series odds for 2026. That may not sound enticing, but it does feel pretty accurate. It’s premature to write off 2026 even before spring training, but it probably helps to have a realistic perspective of what we might see.

Like they did 10 years ago, in the aftermath of Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon’s departure, the Rays are re-examining their outlook. Back in 2015, that involved a near-total teardown that took several seasons to complete. This one feels like more of a renovation.

Based on their moves this offseason, the Rays seem to be gearing back up for another window of opportunity in 2028. They’re not writing off 2026 — or a 2027 season widely expected to be interrupted by labor issues — but their odds will look a lot better when their newly restocked farm system begins sending more players Tampa Bay’s way.

That’s what the Shane Baz trade was about. The Rays gave up a promising, but struggling starting pitcher for five prospects. They traded Brandon Lowe for Jacob Melton, who was Houston’s No. 2 prospect ahead of the 2025 season, according to Baseball America. Since last summer, they’ve said goodbye to five of their six highest-paid players while seven of their top 12 prospects have all been acquired in trades since 2023.

In other words, the Rays recognized when Franco became unavailable and McClanahan’s future grew cloudy that their chances of winning had declined dramatically. Losing your best position player and top pitcher will do that to a franchise. So, instead of putting too much stock in a 2026 season that was already looking like a challenge, the Rays began reallocating their resources for a year or two down the line.

As Marc Topkin astutely pointed out recently, the Rays already have cut ties with more than half of the 49 players who were on the 40-man roster or 60-day injured list when the season ended a little more than two months ago.

It doesn’t mean the Rays are destined to do even worse than the 77-85 record they had in 2025. In fact, they could see a slight improvement after aggressively moving pieces around to produce a more cohesive roster in ’26.

Tampa Bay began acquiring more athletic players a couple of years ago, and they seem to be leaning into that philosophy even more. Losing Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe means a loss of power in the middle of the order, but it also cuts down on the number of strikeouts. Both B-Lowe and J-Lowe had strikeout rates above 25% last season, which was noticeably higher than the major-league average.

The two biggest names acquired in the offseason — free agent outfielder Cedric Mullins and second baseman Gavin Lux — have strikeout rates slightly below the MLB average for their careers. That makes sense because putting the ball in play is a lot more important when your offense includes base stealers such as Chandler Simpson, Taylor Walls, Melton and free-agent signee Jake Fraley.

In fact, the Rays got rid of quite a few players (Christopher Morel, Kameron Misner, Jose Caballero, Everson Pereira, Bob Seymour) with a lot of swing-and-miss in their game. Tampa Bay seems willing to sacrifice some home runs while building a roster in 2026 with a higher on-base percentage.

Can the Rays contend in the American League East with this lineup?

Not likely.

The Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox were all playoff teams last season, and there’s no reason they won’t be contenders in 2026. The Orioles are coming off a disappointing season and have been aggressive in adding to their roster this winter.

Right now, the Rays look like a team that should win 80 games or so. If everything goes their way, maybe they could get in the 85-90 win range and challenge for a wild card.

The point is, they have not made the kind of moves that inspire optimism for the coming season.

But, if you have a little patience, the work the Rays did the past two months could pay off down the road.

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