Analysis: What Alex Bregman signing means for Red Sox

BOSTON — Alex Bregman is coming to Boston.

After months of waiting and hoping, fans finally got the news they were waiting for late Wednesday night as the Red Sox reportedly agreed to a three-year, $120 million deal with the former Houston Astros star. Bregman’s deal reportedly includes opt-outs after each season as well as some deferred money, according to Chandler Rome of The Athletic and others.

The deal caps off what should go down as the most productive offseason in recent team history and positions the Red Sox to contend for their first playoff appearance since 2021. Here is everything we know about the Bregman deal and its ramifications for the franchise:

A historic deal

According to ESPN's Buster Olney, Bregman turned down a six-year, $171.5 million offer from the Detroit Tigers as well as a six-year, $156 million offer from the Astros in order to come to Boston. At $40 million per year, Bregman is set to become the highest-paid player in Red Sox history on an average annual basis.

Olney reports that once deferred money is taken into account, the actual present-day value of the contract will come in closer to three years, $90 million for luxury tax purposes. That would put Bregman right up with Rafael Devers ($31.3 million per year) and David Price ($31 million) at the top of the list for highest AAV in club history.

Sox should exceed luxury tax

Prior to the deal the Red Sox entered spring training with a payroll of approximately $216 million, roughly $25 million below the first luxury tax threshold, according to @RedSoxPayroll. Even with the deferred money, signing Bregman will put the Red Sox well above that threshold.

The Red Sox now enter 2025 with a considerably higher payroll than last year's total of $226.1 million, and the club is also positioned to top the franchise record of $245.2 million set in 2019. The club might not be done either; chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said earlier this week that he's still interested in adding another bullpen arm, which would presumably push that total even higher.

One pick out, another pick in

Because Bregman turned down a qualifying offer from the Astros and wound up signing with another team, the Red Sox will forfeit their second-highest draft pick for signing the two-time All-Star, along with $500,000 in international bonus pool money.

Fortunately, the Red Sox will be getting another pick back as a replacement.

Earlier Wednesday Nick Pivetta reportedly agreed to a four-year, $55 million deal with the San Diego Padres. Pivetta had previously turned down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, so as a result the club will receive a compensatory pick after the second round.

Effectively the Red Sox will see their second pick bumped down from No. 54 overall to No. 77 overall. That pick could still prove quite valuable, as top prospect Roman Anthony was selected with a similar compensatory pick in 2022 after Eduardo Rodriguez left for Detroit.

A badly needed bat

In terms of on-field impact, Bregman should provide an enormous and immediate boost to the Red Sox lineup.

As a right-handed hitter, Bregman will help balance a lineup that previously skewed heavily left-handed even before Tyler O'Neill left in free agency to join the Baltimore Orioles. During his time in Houston Bregman was a two-time All-Star and a Silver Slugger winner who consistently batted at the top of the order for one of the most successful franchises of the past decade.

Bregman's ability to drive the ball in the air to left should make him a perfect fit at Fenway Park, where he's historically dominated. In 21 career regular-season games at Fenway Bregman has batted .375 with seven home runs, 16 extra-base hits and a 1.240 OPS. That is the highest OPS for a player with at least 75 plate appearances at Fenway Park, and his .490 on-base percentage at Fenway ranks second only to Ted Williams (.496).

Last season Bregman batted .260 with 26 home runs, 75 RBIs and a .768 OPS for the Astros, though those numbers were somewhat skewed by a dreadful start in which he batted .189 with a .520 OPS through May 8. For the rest of the season afterwards he performed much better, batting .280 with an .838 OPS, numbers more in line with his career averages (.272 and .848, respectively).

Defensively, Bregman has played his entire MLB career at third base, but with Devers already ensconced at that position the expectation is he will likely take over as the starting second baseman in 2025. The Red Sox could conceivably also move Devers off third as part of a larger shakeup, but that would likely require trading either Triston Casas or Masataka Yoshida to free up first base or designated hitter, something that isn't likely at this stage of the offseason.

A proven winner

As much of an impact as Bregman could have on the field, he might have an even bigger impact off the field.

Bregman has played nearly his entire career on championship-caliber clubs and has appeared in 99 postseason games, including 26 games in the World Series. The two-time World Series champion is no stranger to the spotlight and will bring a level of big game readiness few others on the Red Sox possess.

The soon-to-be 31-year-old will also take significant pressure off the club's young stars without necessarily blocking their paths to the big leagues.

Prior to Bregman's signing, top prospect Kristian Campbell might have been counted on to not just make the opening day roster but quickly become an impact player as the starting second baseman. Now Campbell, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer will have more flexibility to grow at their own pace while also benefitting from the veteran presence Bregman will provide.