Politics, Moderate



Republican House Seats Potentially At Risk

Democrats must pick up 23 seats to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives this November. They have plenty of openings since 68 seats currently held by Republicans are at varying levels of risk.

A race-by-race analysis at ScottRasmussen.com shows that 28 of these Republican seats are at a high level of risk (Democrat favored, Toss...Read more

Dems get good news, but there's a long way to go

Just over a week ago, turnout in the Texas primary raised serious questions about how big the Democratic wave could grow by November. This week, however, Connor Lamb won a narrow special victory in a Pennsylvania district that President Trump had carried by 20 points. Democratic spirits soared and some began dreaming that 100 or more Republican ...Read more

The most important demographic for election 2018

The election season got started this past Tuesday in Texas, and the primary results are being analyzed for clues about what they mean for November.

The results confirmed that the Democratic enthusiasm is real, but it's probably not strong enough to turn Texas blue. The number of votes cast in Democratic primaries nearly doubled those from four ...Read more

Cultural nuances of the gun debate

A recent Politico headline shouted a message that liberal Democrats were longing to hear: "Gun control support surges in polls." Given the fact that Republicans are generally opposed to strict gun controls, that seems like it should be a boost for the Democrats in the midterm election.

Despite that, many Democratic strategists worry that the ...Read more

Time to Change the Election Game

For political junkies, Monday's release of a new map for Pennsylvania's Congressional Districts was one of the biggest news events of the 2018 midterm elections. The State Supreme Court imposed new District boundaries for every single district in the state and created more opportunities for Democrats.

The impact of this ruling has national ...Read more

The Constitution is not the problem

Writing for The Week, Ryan Cooper made his case that "America's Constitution is terrible. Let's throw it out and start over."

While most Americans revere the document that created our government, Cooper is not alone in his disdain for it. Law professors Adrian Vermeule and Eric Posner expressed their opposition in a book that dreamed of doing ...Read more

One major difference between 2010 and 2018

Republicans are understandably nervous about the parallels between the 2010 midterm elections that brought them to power and the 2018 midterms where Democrats envision a return to power.

Eight years ago, a polarizing new president was facing his first midterm election. Progressives and conservatives offered wildly different interpretations of ...Read more

The president presses his advantage on immigration

Last week, I noted that President Trump won the shutdown because he instinctively understood the strategic situation far better than Senate Democrats, establishment Republicans, and his other beltway critics. He knew he had a stronger position than the Democrats and used that understanding to his advantage.

This week, in his State-of-the-Union ...Read more

The Art of the Shutdown

President Trump didn't respond to the so-called shutdown of the federal government in the way that the political class thought he should. He didn't get personally involved in detailed negotiations to end the impasse and didn't convey a sense of crisis to the American people.

When all was said and done, this skirmish showed the dangers of ...Read more

Where to look for the wave

It's normal for the party out of power to gain ground in a midterm election. The big question in 2018 is whether the Democrats will gain enough ground to win a majority in the House of Representatives.

While the political winds currently favor the Democrats, 390 of the 435 House races are pretty well locked in for one party or the other. Only ...Read more

Election 2018 Scoreboards: Who's Up and Who's Down?

Looking ahead to Election 2018, the numbers are close enough for either party to end up in control of the House, the Senate or both. The final outcome will be determined by a combination of the races in play, the fundamentals in each race, and the strength of the political winds in November.

To track all of this, I've rolled out a new service ...Read more

The ground is shifting under Obamacare

President Trump has perfected the art of antagonizing his opponents with provocative tweets. He demonstrated this skill recently in declaring that the tax reform act, by repealing the Obamacare mandate, had effectively repealed Obamacare.

This generated a number of stories from left-leaning pundits pointing out that there's a lot more to ...Read more

A viewer's guide to the midterm elections

Forget the Super Bowl! For millions of Americans, the biggest spectator sport of 2018 will be the midterm elections. The political winds currently favor the Democrats, but it's impossible to know how strong they'll be blowing come November. Five key races can give casual fans a good sense of what to expect.

In the Senate, the races to watch ...Read more


Social Connections


Steve Benson Steve Breen Nick Anderson Gary Markstein Mike Lester Marshall Ramsey