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Feminist advocate Susan Estrich works in many fields: as a lawyer, professor, political operative, author, and news commentator. She was educated ...
Read more about Susan Estrich.
Feminist advocate Susan Estrich works in many fields: as a lawyer, professor, political operative, author, and news commentator. She was educated ...
Read more about Susan Estrich.
Everything and Nothing
Susan Estrich
Everything and nothing happened on Tuesday. I could have predicted
that. Whoever "wins" says it means everything. Whoever "loses" says it
means nothing. That's how off-off-year elections work. History
supports both sides.
This time, the Republicans managed to claw at least a little bit of defeat from the jaws of victory with their act of self-destruction in New York-23. As everyone in the world now knows, a district that has been Republican since the Civil War is sending a Democrat to Congress on account of the intrusion of Republican Party leaders in the form of Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck, quickly followed by everyone (else) who wants to be president.
Nancy Pelosi, up one for the night, claimed victory. The president's spokesman, contradicting the steady refrain of Republicans, said New Jersey and Virginia had absolutely nothing to do with the president.
In a way, that's true, which is not good for Democrats.
What Obama defenders have repeatedly and rightly pointed out is that the president remains popular in both of the states Republicans won on Tuesday -- more popular, unfortunately for them, than the two Democrats who, especially Jon Corzine, sought a boost from his coattails. There was no boost. The Obama "voters" did not turn out. And some of those who did voted Republican this time.
I've worked with Corzine campaigns in the past. They know how to "do field," that is, to find and bring out every last voter in the state who could be identified. Corzine had issues with his voters independent of the president, starting with taxes. Still, press secretary Robert Gibbs is right. In New Jersey, the gap between Corzine's numbers and the president's is the difference between defeat and victory. Nothing the president -- or a great field organization benefiting from his -- could do could deliver that vote.
Not good news if you got elected two years ago in part because the president was on top of the ticket.
It's a long, long time, politically speaking, between now and the next time Barack Obama has to run. That's good news for the president, but not so good for those who could use some fairy dust. It means members of Congress in marginal districts are essentially on their own.
And that makes health care even trickier, if that could be possible.
On the one hand, the pressure on Democrats to support the president will, if anything, be more intense now than it has been. He needs them more. The House leadership needs to deliver. Rahm Emanuel needs to deliver. Allowing health care reform to get close only to be killed amid claims that the plan was the wrong one is a movie whose ending we've lived through once. It's not one anyone would like to see again, on the Democratic side.
On the other hand, you could be in real trouble with voters in your district, especially independents, if you're seen as supporting an unpopular reform effort because Pelosi squeezed you to keep you in line. Not good, either. I don't know too many marginal members who are eager to see their re-elections turn into a referendum on health care reform.
It may be too late, and it certainly isn't anyone's style here, but the real lesson of New York-23 may be about the risks of allowing the perfect to be the enemy of the good.
Shooting inside the tent cost the Republicans a ridiculously safe seat. Democrats are capable of doing the same. They need to pass a health care plan that won't cost the Democratic majority that majority, or the whole effort could blow up in the president's face. Just in time for him to be on the top of the ballot. And then it could mean everything to him.
========
To find out more about Susan Estrich and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
Copyright 2009 Creators Syndicate Inc.
This news arrived on: 11/06/2009
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Posted Comments:
11-13-2009 23:07
JCE wrote:
The only thing proven in court is nothing at all. The only thing that ACORN did that was unacceptable to the republicans, and caused them to declare jihad on ACORN is that ACORN registered millions of legal democrats. All the rest is hearsay, not yet proven in court. And the times they were taken to court, they were found not guilty. I guess with the republicans destroying themselves, anyone who registers voters who are unhappy with the government, and the way it has been run, and finds that most of those voters refuse to be republican, would be akin to the antichrist. Shouldn't be a surprise, as many republicans have left the party, and as many splinter groups as have grown up, each claiming to be the one and only true one. As far as proven is concerned, the republicans have just as many allegations against them as the democrats, and that isn't including all the whites with guns and badges that for years have blocked the polls where blacks or democrats were trying and failing to vote. Since I do a bit of research for my stuff, I can only assume that some of you who bring up taking others words for things, are those who do that, watching Fox news. Why don't you just ask Murcoch to put you on his email, and tell you what to think, and cut out the middle men? You speak words right out of the special interests scripts, the ones that the right wing political astroturf committees have been using for the paid and bussed baggers, deathers and birthers. I guess the economy is bad, they need jobs too. Now Fox shows the old bag parties and tries to con you into believing that it is yesterdays. The leaves gave it away.
11-07-2009 22:32
old cowboy wrote:
Vote counting
I guess I missed something but am not sure it got into vote counting but I will join in. Remember an election about 9 years ago when votes in Florida insured brother Bush to become President?
11-07-2009 22:05
wrote:
JCE you are a moron. How can you bring up registering dead voters when the Democratic lackeys such as ACORN, SEIU and MoveOn.org and their ilk continue to propagate the internet? You've got guys like the editor of Wikipedia editorializing articles about Mark Levin get on while preventing others from cleaning it up. The MSM providing a one sided view of the news, masquerading editorials as news articles. And then we have morons like you continuing to preach like what they read was gospel.
11-07-2009 17:29
JCE wrote:
Redneck I hate to burst your bubble, but the republicans were the ones who were registering the dead long before the democrats thought of it.
The good thing for the country is that the last week has had the desperate republicans coming out of the closet, and showing some real stupidity. How good that will be remains to be seen. Rupert Murdoch openly admitting to completely controlling what Fox is allow to say or not say, that he uses Fox for personal goals, to include vendettas. Republican leaders openly behind astroturf bussed teabagger events, not knowing the difference between the constitution and the declaration of independence, and getting caught in lies. The power of modern technology is great. You hear the person speak, then you hear what he said last year, and it is the opposite. So you know it is a lie. The internet is the great equalizer, if the people would just use it, rather than allow the right wing propaganda machine to use them and control their minds. It would be so easy for people to take control of their local governments, and then state governments. But that would require a little work and intelligence. So instead, they will spin their wheels, and try to elect more of the same democrats or republicans, futilely hoping they will be different. And refusing to help Obama as he takes on the special interests, all the while saying gleefully that he is failing.
The good thing for the country is that the last week has had the desperate republicans coming out of the closet, and showing some real stupidity. How good that will be remains to be seen. Rupert Murdoch openly admitting to completely controlling what Fox is allow to say or not say, that he uses Fox for personal goals, to include vendettas. Republican leaders openly behind astroturf bussed teabagger events, not knowing the difference between the constitution and the declaration of independence, and getting caught in lies. The power of modern technology is great. You hear the person speak, then you hear what he said last year, and it is the opposite. So you know it is a lie. The internet is the great equalizer, if the people would just use it, rather than allow the right wing propaganda machine to use them and control their minds. It would be so easy for people to take control of their local governments, and then state governments. But that would require a little work and intelligence. So instead, they will spin their wheels, and try to elect more of the same democrats or republicans, futilely hoping they will be different. And refusing to help Obama as he takes on the special interests, all the while saying gleefully that he is failing.
11-07-2009 09:52
JDB wrote:
intrusion
Representation ought to be representation, that is, the people of a district ought to be responsible for financing their own campaigns without the intrusion of the party machinery. It is the confusion created by intrusion from people who have no local interest whatsoever other than an additional vote on FEDERAL measures in Congress which cause problems. Forget the international globalist agendas of the left. Prove that Chinese pollution is causing a blight on trees in the Adirondacks! Glen Beck is not a Republican Party leader. Representation without representation is tyranny! Given their logic, a voter would have to be so knowledgeable about non-local, extra-district affairs that are correlative to nothing but electability qualification from a machinery standpoint that central control is all that would result. You want that, we don't.
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