John Clay: How 2024 Kentucky Derby horses have run on sloppy or wet tracks

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Kentucky weather is always subject to change.

So if rain is in the forecast for Kentucky Derby 150 on Saturday at Churchill Downs, here’s a breakdown of which horses have and have not raced on tracks listed as muddy or sloppy.

Colts who have won on off tracks

— 1. Dornoch: A full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage, Dornoch began his racing career with a second-place finish in a maiden race at Saratoga on July 29. Later last year, on Dec. 2, he won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on a muddy track at Aqueduct. The Danny Gargan trainee beat Sierra Leone by a nose in that race.

— 2. Sierra Leone: Trainer Chad Brown’s $2.3 million colt has raced twice on off tracks. He finished second by a nose to Dornoch on a muddy track in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Dec. 2. In his 3-year-old debut, he won the Grade 2 Risen Star by a half-length over Track Phantom on a sloppy track at the Fair Grounds.

— 3. Mystik Dan: Trained by Kenny McPeek, Mystik Dan won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes by a whopping 8 lengths on a muddy track Feb. 3 at Oaklawn Park. Just Steel finished second in that race. Mystik Dan is coming off a third-place finish on a fast track for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 30 at Oaklawn Park.

— 8. Just a Touch: Trained by Brad Cox, Just a Touch was unraced as a 2-year-old and has only three career starts. Two were on sloppy tracks. The son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify won his racing debut in a maiden race Jan. 27 on a sloppy track at the Fair Grounds. He then finished second on a sloppy track at Aqueduct in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes on March 2. Just a Touch finished second to Sierra Leone on a fast Keeneland track for the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on April 13.

— 17. Fierceness: The morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby, Fierceness has produced mixed results on off tracks. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Fierceness won his debut by 11 1/4 lengths on a muddy track at Saratoga on Aug. 26, 2023. His next start, Fierceness ran seventh on a sloppy Aqueduct track in the Grade 1 Champagne on Oct. 7. Since then, Mike Repole’s colt has won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, finished third in the Grade 3 Holy Bull, and demolished the Grade 1 Florida Derby by 13 1/2 lengths. All three were on fast tracks.

— 20. Society Man: One of trainer Danny Gargan’s two Derby entries, Society Man broke his maiden by winning on a muddy track at Aqueduct on March 9. Before that, the son of 2018 Kentucky Derby runner-up Good Magic ran eighth on a muddy track at Aqueduct on Feb. 3. In his last start. Society Man finished second to Resilience in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on April 6.

Colts who have hit the board on an off track

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