Some of 2024's best horses will miss the Kentucky Derby as Churchill's feud with Bob Baffert lingers

Muth rolled to victory by 2 lengths on March 30 in the Arkansas Derby, a 200-point Derby qualifier. Between that performance, a win in the American Pharoah Stakes last October at Santa Anita Park and a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November at Santa Anita, Muth would have accrued 125 Derby qualifying points.

That would place Muth in a tie for third on the Derby qualifying leaderboard, firmly in the field and among the race favorites.

In the moments immediately following Muth’s impressive Arkansas Derby win, the Fox Sports broadcast of the race interviewed legendary 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas after his horse, Just Steel, finished second and earned enough Kentucky Derby qualifying points to make the race.

Lukas’ comments during the interview weren’t about his horse, or the prospects of potentially winning a fifth Kentucky Derby himself. Instead, he lamented the fact that Baffert wouldn’t, and couldn’t, bring Muth to horse racing’s showcase event.

Over the last three years, the scene that played out at Oaklawn Park in late March — a Baffert horse running well and earning Derby qualifying points that were then vacated — has happened frequently.

In 2021-22, horses with Baffert as the trainer of record “earned” 103 out of a total of 2,363 qualifying points (4.4%) that were on offer in the 37 American Road to the Derby prep races. Baffert-trained horses occupied 12 of the 148 total finishing positions (8.1%) that awarded qualifying points in those Derby prep races.

Two of Baffert’s horses from that year’s 3-year-old group — Taiba and Messier — were transferred to Yakteen during the prep season and earned enough points under his guidance to qualify for the Derby gate.

Taiba ran 12th and Messier 15th in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

In 2022-23, Baffert horses “earned” 137 of the 2,938 total qualifying points (4.7%) offered across 37 American Road to the Derby prep races. Baffert-trained horses occupied 21 of the 184 finishing positions (11.4%) that gave out qualifying points in that year’s prep circuit.

One of Baffert’s horses from that year’s 3-year-old group — Reincarnate — was also transferred to Yakteen and earned enough points to make the Derby field. Reincarnate finished 13th in the 2023 Kentucky Derby.

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