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2024 Kentucky Derby Watch: Three key prep races will shape the field this weekend

Cameron Drummond, Lexington Herald-Leader on

Published in Horse Racing

LEXINGTON, Ky. — The prep race season ahead of the 150th Kentucky Derby is in full swing.

Less than 40 days remain until the Run for the Roses — which now carries a $5 million purse — gets underway on May 4 at Churchill Downs in Louisville.

Keeneland’s annual Spring Meet starts next week, with horse racing soon to take center stage again in the Central Kentucky sports landscape.

But before that, several key Kentucky Derby prep races that will have a significant impact on the Derby starting gate will be run Saturday.

The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, Grade 1 Florida Derby and the Grade 2 UAE Derby will all be run Saturday as part of the American road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying pathway. All three of these races are win-and-in Derby qualifiers that award qualifying points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale to the top five finishers in the race.

Saturday will also feature the Cardinal Condition Stakes, which is the final race on the European road to the Derby. That race will award qualifying points on a 30-15-9-6-3 scale to the top five finishers in the race.

Currently, the American leaderboard is headlined by the Brad Cox-trained Catching Freedom (125 qualifying points) and the Michael McCarthy-trained Endlessly (100 points). Catching Freedom has won a pair of Derby qualifying races — the Smarty Jones Stakes in January for 10 points and last Saturday’s Grade 2 Louisiana Derby for 100 points — while Endlessly earned all of his qualifying points from winning last Saturday’s Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park in Florence.

Catching Freedom also ran third in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes in February.

The European leaderboard is led by a pair of horses with 20 points: Notable Speech (who won the Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes at England’s Kempton Park) and Bergamasco (who this month won the Patton Race at Dundalk in Ireland).

Ireland-bred Navy Seal with eight points is tops on the European qualifying leaderboard among horses nominated to the Triple Crown.

The Japanese leaderboard is paced by T O Password, who secured a spot in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field by winning last Saturday’s Fukuryu Stakes and earning 40 qualifying points. The Fukuryu Stakes was the final and most consequential of the qualifying races that are part of the Japanese road to the Kentucky Derby.

T O Password’s connections have reportedly accepted the invitation to compete in the Kentucky Derby. In last year’s Derby, Derma Sotogake (sixth) and Mandarin Hero (12th) were the horses in the field with ties to Japan.

Arkansas Derby

Where: Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark.

When: Post time is 7:47 p.m. EDT Saturday.

Purse: $1.5 million.

Field (with jockey, trainer and morning-line odds):

— 1: Will Take It — Francisco Arrieta, Eddie Milligan Jr., 50-1

— 2: Timberlake — Flavien Prat, Brad Cox, 9-5

— 3: Dimatic — Cristian Torres, Steve Asmussen, 20-1

— 4: Time for Truth — Rafael Bejarano, Ron Moquett, 20-1

— 5: Liberal Arts — Tyler Gaffalione, Robert Medina, 15-1

— 6: Informed Patriot — Ricardo Santana Jr., Steve Asmussen, 30-1

— 7: Muth — Juan Hernandez, Bob Baffert, 8-5

— 8: Just Steel — Keith Asmussen, D. Wayne Lukas, 15-1

— 9: Mystik Dan — Brian Hernandez Jr., Kenny McPeek, 5-2

— 10: Imperial Gun — Emmanuel Equivel, Steve Asmussen, 30-1

What to know: Timberlake is back in action after a convincing win in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes last month at the same track, which earned him 50 Derby qualifying points. Muth, a Bob Baffert trainee, is ineligible for Derby qualifying points and is making his first start outside of California. Both of Mystik Dan’s previous races in 2024 came at Oaklawn Park, a fifth-place showing on New Year’s Day in the Smarty Jones Stakes and a win on a muddy track last month in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes.

Florida Derby

Where: Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla.

When: Post time is 6:42 p.m. EDT Saturday.

Purse: $1 million.

Field (with jockey, trainer and morning-line odds):

— 1: Frankie’s Empire — Miguel Vasquez, Michael Yates, 12-1

 

— 2: Hades — Paco Lopez, Joe Orseno, 7-2

— 3: Bail Us Out — Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher, 15-1

— 4: Grand Mo the First — Emisael Jaramillo, Victor Barboza Jr., 15-1

— 5: Real Macho — Javier Castellano, Rohan Crichton, 20-1

— 6: Le Dom Bro — Edwin Gonzalez, Eniel Cordero, 15-1

— 7: Catalytic — Julien Leparoux, Saffie Joseph Jr., 20-1

— 8: Seminole Chief — Joel Rosario, Jack Sisterson, 30-1

— 9: Conquest Warrior — Jose Ortiz, Shug McGaughey, 3-1

— 10: Fierceness — John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 8-5

— 11: Iris’s Dream — Jorge Ruiz, Cheryl Winebaugh, 30-1

What to know: After winning November’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita Park in impressive fashion, Fierceness regressed with a third-place showing at Gulfstream Park last month in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. The winner of that race, Hades, is also in the Florida Derby field. Conquest Warrior is a perfect 2 for 2 at Gulfstream Park this year, with wins in a maiden special weight race in January and in an allowance optional claiming race in March.

Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Mage, ran second in the Florida Derby behind Forte, the Kentucky Derby favorite who was scratched the morning of the Run for the Roses.

UAE Derby

Where: Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

When: Post time is 9:50 a.m. EDT Saturday.

Purse: $1 million.

Field (with jockey and trainer):

— 1: Auto Bahn — Mickael Barzalona, Julio Olascoaga

— 2: Oasis Boy — Christophe Soumillon, Julio Olascoaga

— 3: Rock Walk — Joao Moreira, Julio Olascoaga

— 4: Ballon D’Or — Norihirio Yokoyama, Mikio Matsunaga

— 5: Forever Young — Ryusei Sakai, Yoshito Yahagi

— 6: George Tesoro — Yuga Kawada, Takayuki Kato

— 7: Guns And Glory — Jamie Spencer, Bhupat Seemar

— 8: Henry Adams — Ryan Moore, Aidan O’Brien

— 9: Killer Collect — Tadhg O’Shea, Bhupat Seemar

— 10: Mendelssohn Bay — Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar

— 11: Navy Seal — Wayne Lordan, Aidan O’Brien

— 12: Pandagate — Dylan Davis, Christophe Clement

— 13: Satono Phoenix — Oisin Murphy, Masato Nishizono

What to know: Forever Young (Japan) has had an active few months, going a perfect 4 for 4 since making his racing debut in October. This includes winning a race that was part of the Japanese road to the Kentucky Derby (the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun) and winning the Grade 3 Saudi Derby. He’s the horse to beat in the UAE Derby.

Pandagate is the only American horse in the field. The New York-bred won his last time out in a stakes race last month at Aqueduct.

The UAE Derby has existed since 2000, and no winner of the race has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Furthermore, UAE Derby participants are 0 for 19 all time in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish in the Kentucky Derby by a UAE Derby runner was fifth in 2011 by Master of Hounds.


©2024 Lexington Herald-Leader. Visit kentucky.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

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