What's next for Santa Anita after threat to sell the track? Could it really close?

Not everyone has come out publicly, but reading comments and body language, you have the California Thoroughbred Trainers, California Thoroughbred Breeders Association and California Association of Racing Fairs in favor of racing in the north. The Thoroughbred Owners of California, Del Mar, Los Alamitos and, of course, Santa Anita, are in favor of non-fair racing only in the south.

What would happen if there is no racing in the north?

No matter how the vote goes, there will still be fair racing for a few weeks in the summer. That won't go away, at least for now. The most significant impact would be on California breeding. The Northern California racing circuit, admittedly inferior to the quality of racing in the south, is built on the idea of running California-breds. With no Cal-bred races there is no need for California breeding. It's not as if Arizona and Washington will run Cal-bred races.

Would running only in the south save racing in the state?

Not necessarily. Sending simulcast money to the south is only a Band-Aid to a bigger problem. The purses are too small because there is no supplemental gaming money to help prop up the purses. If you don't have big purses, you don't have owners and trainers who want to run in California. If you don't have a lot of horses, bettors, the real fuel in the industry, don't want to bet small fields. So, low betting is bad for everyone.

How will the board vote?

Understand that members of the California Horse Racing Board are paid a whopping $100 a month plus expenses. While they are appointed by the governor, they are not politically motivated. Sometimes they vote with their heart or their gut. The Los Angeles Times has it handicapped this way:

Dennis Alfieri rarely votes against Santa Anita and once praised its performance during the 2019 fatality crisis, when the track refused a request by the board to close. Thomas Hudnut has close ties to Los Alamitos, a track that would benefit from no Northern California racing. But he can be a wild card. Chairman Greg Ferraro, perhaps the most pragmatic of the commissioners, is believed to be leaning toward the south.

Vice chair Oscar Gonzales has indicated he's firmly in the north camp. Brenda Davis usually votes with Gonzales. Damascus Castellanos represents labor, and keeping Northern California jobs could be a priority.

So, who's left? That's Wendy Mitchell. She normally votes with Gonzales, but her tough questioning of the fair representatives in the January meeting showed she needs to be convinced that the Northern California plan can work.

But it's racing — anything can happen.