Ken Sugiura: Interest in NHL expansion team in Atlanta stronger than you think

And then even if the NHL does decide to expand — conditions appear conducive to it — there’s no guarantee that league owners would choose Atlanta and any of its competing bids. Houston is among several cities that have expressed interest besides Atlanta, including Kansas City, Quebec City, Cincinnati and Omaha, Neb. (along with Salt Lake City).

There is a lot to like about Atlanta, but the Houston bid arguably is stronger. First, potential owner Tilman Fertitta has the experience and a track record of operating a major-league franchise as the owner of the Rockets.

As the Flames and Thrashers both demonstrated in their time in Atlanta, a successful franchise needs more than a viable location, a sheet of ice and an owner with the means to purchase a team. While Daly said that Atlanta’s two failed attempts won’t disqualify any current bidders, surely the league will want to have every confidence that a third try would be in the right hands.

Franchise fees could be north of $1 billion. Then there’s the hundreds of millions to build an arena. And then there’s the tens of millions required annually to run it well. And then there’s the necessary expertise and patience to make it work.

“Most importantly, ownership comes into play in making a determination as to whether a club has a chance to be successful over the long term,” Daly said.

While it doesn’t rule him out, Krause has never owned a professional sports team. The Alpharetta group includes Neil Leibman, who is a part owner of the Texas Rangers and the club’s president of business operations and chief operating officer.

Another factor in Houston’s favor is that it has an existing arena, not one that is being pitched. (While State Farm Arena, where the Thrashers played 1999-2011, could still be used for hockey, the option that the NHL would likely favor is a new arena in the northern suburbs, where studies have shown that a franchise would have a better chance of success.)

Renderings and assurances are nice, but it’s not the same as an actual building. The Forsyth project, for instance, ran into a snag in March when county commissioners approved a contribution of $225 million through bond financing to a proposed 18,500-seat arena (contingent on the project landing an NHL team). It was 42% less than the $390 million that they had proposed in a non-binding deal in January. Krause said in a statement that he was “shocked and extremely disappointed” in the changes after months of negotiations and that his team would evaluate whether to proceed. (Talks between the county and Krause’s negotiating team are continuing, a spokeswoman for Krause’s development project told the AJC on Tuesday.)

And while many have assumed that the league would add two teams to maintain an even number of teams — an outcome that would increase Atlanta’s chances — Daly said that “we’re very clear” with interested groups that the NHL could add only one team if it chooses to expand.

“Certainly, it could be two, but it doesn’t have to be two,” he said.

Atlanta could well have a group that has all the qualifications but still get shut out. For instance, it’s conceivable that, after the Coyotes move to Salt Lake City, the NHL could award new franchises to Houston and Phoenix if Meruelo were able to build an arena. And while that would add two teams in the West, the NHL could balance it by shifting Chicago and Nashville to the Eastern Conference.

Could the additions be Houston and Atlanta? Particularly if Meruelo can’t get his new arena, it’s entirely plausible.

And that’s why Atlanta having even more interest than previously believed is potentially an advantage to its chances. With more groups, the better the chance that one of them has the right combination of money, savvy, vision and commitment to convince the NHL that Atlanta is worth the third attempt.

It would be quite the hat trick.