ORLANDO, Fla. — Kurt Kitayama’s stunning win at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational was the journeyman’s first victory on the PGA Tour, or on any relevant tour.

These days, first-time winners are popping up everywhere.

Four of nine champions in 2024 had never reached the winner’s circle and reigning U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark was the only golfer among the top 50 in the world rankings when he won. And Clark prevailed after bad weather shortened the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to 54 holes.

If history is a guide, Bay Hill Club and Lodge could recalibrate the pecking order during the Arnold Palmer Invitational, set to run Thursday through Sunday.

“We’re kind of getting into what I would call sort of the thick of the season,” world No. 5 Xander Schauffele said. “I imagine you’ll start seeing some of the higher-ranked players winning.”

Before Kitayama, 2020 winner Tyrrell Hatton and Matt Every, who won in ’14-15, were the only first-timers at Bay Hill since Paul Goydos in 1996. Hatton, though, was a top European Tour player with four victories.

Goydos’ maiden victory preceded wins by Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els. In 2000, Tiger Woods began his run of eight wins at Bay Hill in 14 years. The record-setting reign was interrupted by a swing change in ’04 and world-class players Kenny Perry in ’05, Vijay Singh in ’07 and a sex scandal in ’10 when Els again won with Woods away.

The occasional surprise did arise, like Rod Pampling’s ’06 victory, his second of three on Tour, and Martin Laird’s ’11 win, his second of four.

This season, unexpected champions are a trend, if not a sign of the times. Besides the four newbies, Grayson Murray’s victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii was his first since 2017.

“It’s harder to win out here than it ever has,” world No. 6 Patrick Cantlay said. “Guys play more aggressively, and the scores are lower and lower, seemingly every year.”

Bay Hill has pushed back in recent years by presenting one of the Tour’s 10 toughest tests since 2019, when the week’s scoring average was over par.

“It’s just hard and it just gets harder as the week goes on it’s borderline,” Will Zalatoris said. “By Sunday it’s major championship toughness — just get out of there with pars and be happy.”

Zalatoris, who is ranked 34th coming off 2023 back surgery, has just one victory on Tour himself, at the ’22 FedEx St. Judes Classic. But with six top-10s in 10 majors before his injury the 27-year-old would not sneak up on anyone at Bay Hill.

Meanwhile, the biggest names and winners aim to get on track as next week’s Players Championship looms and major championship season beckons, beginning with the Masters April 11-14.

Among top players, Schauffele is one who’s had chances stumbled on Sunday.

The 30-year-old was two back at the season-open Sentry and in the final pairing at the Genesis Invitational, where he and Cantlay, his closest friend on Tour, were in the final pairing at Riviera. Neither broke 70 as Hideki Matsuyama closed with a 9-under 62 to win by 3 and become the sole big-name winner in 2024 after injuries plagued the Japanese star last year.

“Haven’t been able to sort of really get over the hump or get myself close, I should even say, with six to nine holes in a tournament,” Schauffele said. “Just keep on keeping on is kind of what I’m doing.”

Schauffele has four top-10s in five starts this season, but has finished tied for 24 and 39 in two starts at the API with just one of eights rounds in the 60s. Something has to change this week for the seven-time winner to end a 32-tournament drought.

Cantlay, who has eight victories on Tour, is amid of winless streak of 27 starts dating to 2022. He finished T4 during his API debut last year.

“You got to keep putting yourself in position time after time, and some of those weeks you get the right break at the right time,” he said. “You hit a couple putts that, instead of going on the lip, they go in. Usually those are the weeks that you win.”

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler’s putter has betrayed him repeatedly, including during his effort to repeat at the Phoenix Open. The 2022 API winner ranks 144th on Tour in strokes gained putting, but has a knack for contending at Bay Hill.

Ditto world No. 2 Rory McIlroy, who won in 2018 and has finished outside the top-15 just once in nine starts. With consecutive top-10s, including a runner-up finish in 2022, Viktor Hovland seeks his first top-10 in his fourth start of 2024.

“It’s been a little bit frustrating so far this year,” he said.

But a star-studded leaderboard Sunday would be no surprise. In fact, it’s was PGA Tour’s goal for limited-field signature events like the API.

A field of just 69 players, down from 120, will compete for $20 million, including $4 million to the winner. A cut will be set at the low 50 and ties, or anyone within 10 shots of the lead.

Vastly reduced fields playing for huge purses is not popular with the Tour’s rank and file but a pushback to the threat of LIV Golf, where Hatton and 2021 API winner Bryson DeChambeau reside.

Among the concerns with signature events was a lack of access. Yet this week 17 players who did not tee it up in the Genesis, the most recent signature event, will be in the API field.

If the 2024 trend holds, one of them might become the next surprise winner.

“It was definitely the idea to try to get the best possible field in all these events,” said Cantlay, a member of the Tour’s Policy Board. “Part of that is getting some of the guys that have played well this year. If you play well enough, there’s no barrier to get in.

“It’s been good.”

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