Every NFL offseason, it’s the same free-agency fantasy.

We see it with the Dolphins, we see it all over the NFL.

Hope abounds.

No, let’s be real.

Hope runs amok.

Player A replaces Player B, and Player A will be even better because … and then you concoct some unlikely scenario in which Player A, as your team’s coach and general manager might insist, is actually a better fit than Player B for what they’re trying to accomplish.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

My casual observation from 15 years of coverage is that roughly 50% of free-agent signees meet expectations leaguewide.

That brings us back to the Dolphins, who, according to my estimates, have had above-average success (56%) with free agents the previous two years.

I know that’s a weird percentage. I’ll explain that soon.

I like what the Dolphins have done in free agency.

But I wonder whether it’s enough to finally win a playoff game.

And I seriously doubt it’s enough to, take a deep breath, win a Super Bowl.

While the former is possible, I don’t think the latter is realistic at this point, a few weeks before the draft.

Let’s break it down.

So far this year, the Dolphins have signed 12 free agents: safety Jordan Poyer, outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett, cornerbacks Kendall Fuller and Siran Neal, linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Anthony Walker Jr., center Aaron Brewer, tight end Jonnu Smith, nose tackle Benito Jones, defensive tackle Neville Gallimore, tight end Jody Fortson and guard-tackle Jack Driscoll.

The problem is that the Dolphins lost a lot of high-quality players in the offseason.

Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. Cornerback Xavien Howard. Right guard Robert Hunt. Edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel. Linebacker Jerome Baker. Safety Brandon Jones. Safety DeShon Elliott. Nose tackle Raekwon Davis.

The outgoing talent is better than the incoming talent.

And if the Dolphins couldn’t even win a single playoff game with the players they lost, you figure the players they bring in have to be much, much better.

They’re not.

For this free-agent class to be much better than the players the Dolphins lost, this class would have to far exceed what the Dolphins’ free-agent classes have done the previous two years.

That seems unlikely.

Those classes were pretty good.

Consider the Dolphins’ 10 free-agent signees in 2022, McDaniel’s first season: left tackle Terron Armstead, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, cornerback Keion Crossen, running back Chase Edmonds, outside linebacker Melvin Ingram, punter Thomas Morstead, running back Raheem Mostert, wide receiver Trent Sherfield, center Connor Williams and wide receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr.

You could say six — Armstead, Crossen, Ingram, Morstead, Mostert, Sherfield and Williams — met expectations.

In 2023, the Dolphins’ six free-agent signees were safety DeShon Elliott, center Dan Feeney, linebacker David Long Jr., linebacker Malik Reed, tight end Eric Saubert and quarterback Mike White.

Elliott and Long met expectations. We’ll add White, but, through no fault of his own, he should get an incomplete because he didn’t play much.

So that’s nine of Miami’s 16 (56%) free-agent signees that met expectations over the past two seasons.

Obviously, this isn’t scientific.

For the 2024 free-agent class to fare better, seven of the 12 free-agent signees (58%) would have to meet expectations.

And having them meet expectations still might not be enough to win a playoff game.

The majority of these signees probably need to exceed expectations for the Dolphins to win a playoff game.

The point here isn’t to poo-poo what Miami has done in free agency.

The Dolphins have done well.

The point is to illustrate how high the mountain is that Miami must climb to win a playoff game this season, and go beyond.

There’s a good chance the 2024 Dolphins have less talent than the 2023 Dolphins.

Within that, there’s also a good chance the Dolphins’ 2024 free-agent signees aren’t as good as the Dolphins’ 2024 departures.

Expectations, however, will continue to soar.

Some of us will convince ourselves that these new additions are just what the Dolphins had been missing the previous two seasons.

Welcome back to NFL free agency, a place where hope is always in style.

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