An Unpopularity Contest for the Ages

WASHINGTON -- The 2016 presidential election is shaping up as an unpopularity contest of unprecedented proportions.

Assuming, as now appears most likely, that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination and that either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz becomes the Republican nominee, the general-election ballot is set to feature a choice between two candidates more negatively viewed than any major-party nominee in the history of polling.

Trump is, by far, the furthest underwater: The latest Wall Street Journal-NBC poll puts his net favorability rating at minus-41. A breathtaking 65 percent of registered voters see him negatively, versus 24 percent with a positive view, making him the most unpopular major party presidential candidate ever recorded. Cruz is at minus-23, with 49 percent viewing him negatively, 26 percent in a positive light.

To underscore the challenge facing the GOP, neither candidate has been viewed more positively than negatively by voters since the start of the campaign.

Clinton, by contrast, has a healthier (and more volatile) history with voters. Polls showed her favorables slightly ahead of her negatives when she formally launched her campaign last April. But her trajectory is unnerving. The new NBC-WSJ numbers have Clinton minus-24 (with 56 percent viewing her unfavorably and 32 percent favorably), almost double the gap just one month earlier.

"This is unprecedented," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. "It will be the first time in the history of polling that we'll have both major party candidates disliked by a majority of the American people going into the election."

Pause to let that sink in, to compare this dyspeptic situation with previous elections -- and consider the implications for governing.

Some historical perspective: All three candidates are more unpopular than the losing presidential candidate at any point during the last five election cycles, according to Gallup data.

If the nominees are Trump and Clinton, said Republican pollster David Winston, "You're probably looking somewhere in the neighborhood of three out of 10 Americans having a negative view of both. You could have a very frustrated electorate by the time we get to Election Day."

It sounds oxymoronic, but voters could elect a president that a majority of them view unfavorably. Assuming Clinton has the advantage over Trump, said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, "she is going to be elected, if she wins, in minus territory, which is something we've never had before."

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