Angela Merkel's Migrant Dilemma

Yet as the flood shows no sign of abating, that positive stance has given way to increasing alarm and, occasionally, violence. Public polling has flipped, with a majority now saying they fear the influx; Merkel's job approval has plummeted 26 points since April, albeit from an astonishing 75 percent. In Bavaria, which has received the bulk of the refugees, Premier Horst Seehofer, normally a Merkel ally, has sharply criticized her migrant policy.

Merkel's boldness has surprised Germans because she is notoriously cautious, even spawning a word, "merkeln," meaning to be indecisive or withhold opinion. Merkel's background -- a pastor's daughter, an East German empathetic to those fleeing oppression -- may explain some of her uncharacteristic passion on the migrants.

Still, even in this instance she may have been something of an accidental humanitarian, having failed to grasp how her soothing words -- and those selfies -- would be instantly transmitted to cellphone-toting refugees.

Likewise, her statement that Germany expected 800,000 migrants this year -- the final tally could be close to a million -- was seen as a welcoming invitation, rather than a statement of reality.

In recent weeks, Merkel has been careful to emphasize that Germany's generosity, and capacity, has limits. While the country has a legal obligation to shelter refugees, she said, "we don't have the task of keeping everyone here for life."

Last week, Merkel reached a deal with Seehofer to establish "transit zones" at borders to process asylum requests, only to face a revolt from her liberal Social Democrat coalition partners, who denounced the proposed sites as prisons. Instead, there will be "reception centers" inside Germany, quicker removal of those from "safe" countries, primarily the Balkans, and limits on family reunification.

The turmoil has raised inevitable questions about dangers to Merkel's political future. Perhaps, but the chancellor, now in her third term, is a dominant figure, with no obvious successor or rival. "Wir schaffen das," she likes to say of the refugee crisis: We can do it, but, more precisely, we can manage this. Betting against Merkel's managerial skills is never the wisest course.

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Ruth Marcus' email address is ruthmarcus@washpost.com.