Bush Would Revisit 'Voodoo Economics'

I don't quarrel with the fundamental instincts of Bush's plan -- to broaden the tax base by eliminating or trimming deductions and credits. Of course that makes sense with our current monster of a tax code. And making the system fairer, more rational and easier to navigate would benefit not only individuals but the economy at large.

Nor is there anything inherently wrong with the kind of dynamic scoring Bush employs to disguise the size of his cuts. As former Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf explains in a new paper, including such feedback effects for major legislation like tax cuts would improve accuracy and "provide important information" about economic effects.

But I return to the fundamental question: Why is a gigantic tax cut warranted -- another gigantic tax cut, on top of what Bush's brother oversaw when there were supposed budgetary surpluses?

Notably, the Bush 43 tax cuts pale in comparison to what Jeb Bush proposes; they amounted to 5 percent of total expected revenue. The Bush 43 cuts came at a time when reputable economists fretted over paying down the debt too fast. Now, debt levels have soared to a dangerous share of the economy.

Are Americans overtaxed? Not compared to other industrialized countries. In total tax burden, state and federal, in 2012, the United States ranked 32nd out of 34 among the members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

And not overtaxed compared to previous levels. Effective federal tax rates are near historical lows, according to the CBO. The average effective tax rate was 17.6 percent in 2011, compared to 22 percent in 1979. The 2013 fiscal cliff deal increased tax burdens for the wealthiest Americans, but the basic truth remains.

The Bush campaign argues that tax cuts are warranted to jump-start an anemic economic recovery and that the resulting hole will be filled by other pro-growth changes and spending cuts, particularly in entitlement programs. But given the nation's precarious fiscal state, it makes scant sense to devote trillions to tax cuts justified by neither history nor logic.

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Ruth Marcus' email address is ruthmarcus@washpost.com.