Biden Can't Defeat Clinton--She Can Do That Herself

WASHINGTON -- Maybe Joe Biden can help Hillary Clinton get her groove back.

Or, get her groove at all. It's been sorely missing this campaign.

Clinton is at her best, or at least does best with voters, when she's down. See the misty-eyed moment in New Hampshire 2008. Clinton challenged and vulnerable is more appealing to voters than Clinton entitled and regal.

So perhaps the threat of a nudge from Biden -- on top of the actual nudge from Bernie Sanders -- is what it will take to make her, in Barack Obama's famous phrase, "likable enough" to voters.

Biden and Clinton are near ideological twins -- and characterological opposites. Biden oozes authenticity, but lacks discipline. Clinton epitomizes discipline but lacks authenticity.

In the end, I predict, this simultaneous similarity and difference will lead the vice president to decide against entering the race. He lacks a compelling substantive argument for voters to choose him over Clinton -- they are of the same generation, appeal to similar demographics, occupy the same liberal/centrist point on the political spectrum.

At the same time, the character differences end up weighing in Clinton's favor. As much as voters look for a candidate they can imagine having a beer with, they also would weary of Biden's unbridled loquaciousness. Being a late-night punch line is not appealing in a president.

Biden is understandably toying with the notion of running: Presidential fever, once in the bloodstream, has a tendency to linger; at 72, 2016 is his final chance; his late son's wishes are a potent motivator.

Still, I suspect that the Biden trial balloon is less a mark of certain entry than a placeholder, a canny reminder that Biden remains available as a break-in-case-of-emergency candidate if Clinton fizzles.

Which she hasn't -- yet. But, putting it mildly, the campaign so far has not been kind to Clinton. The issues of her private email server and family foundation finances have been, and deserve to be, a drag on her standing with voters. The latest Quinnipiac poll found 37 percent of likely voters deeming her "honest and trustworthy," with 57 percent finding her not. Voters' assessment of Biden was the mirror image, 58 percent assessing him as honest, 34 percent disagreeing.

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