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The Debt: Mission Unaccomplished

Ruth Marcus on

This is a good time to pause, and give credit. First, for the deficit reduction already, painfully accomplished -- $4 trillion in spending cuts and tax increases. Some of the cutting (the blunt instrument of sequestration) is dumb, and the promised trims may be unsustainable. Still, that's not chump change.

Second, for the slower growth of health care costs, the biggest driver of long-term deficits. In 2013, according to statistics compiled by Medicare actuaries, spending grew 0.5 percent less than the previous year, the result of lower costs in both private health insurance and Medicare. The CBO has concluded that "the slowdown in health care cost growth has been sufficiently broad and persistent" to reduce significantly its spending projections for federal health care programs.

Nonetheless, the future is not pretty. Obama, circa 2011, helped explain why. "We have to get back on a path that will allow us to pay down our debt," he said. "Even after our economy recovers, our government will still be on track to spend more money than it takes in throughout this decade and beyond. That means we'll have to keep borrowing more from countries like China. That means more of your tax dollars each year will go toward paying off the interest on all the loans that we keep taking out."

This year, thanks to historically low rates, interest payments on the debt are projected to total $227 billion. By 2025, according to the CBO, that price tag will more than triple, to $827 billion.

Even aside from the opportunity costs of devoting so much of the budget to interest payments, there are, the CBO warns, other "serious negative consequences for both the economy and the federal budget." One is that the government's insatiable appetite for debt will raise the cost of private-sector borrowing, lowering economic growth.

 

Another is that, unlike at the start of the financial crisis when debt amounted to just (!) 43 percent of GDP, the overhang of already huge debt could "restrict policymakers' ability to use tax and spending policies to respond."

The administration, Congress and the country should be talking about the hard choices necessary to deal with this problem. Instead, we see calculated indifference and political grandstanding, including by a president who ought to know better.

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Ruth Marcus' email address is ruthmarcus@washpost.com.


Copyright 2015 Washington Post Writers Group

 

 

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