2016: Two Familiar Names Have the Edge -- Again!
Among Tea party Republicans, 8 percent named Romney, followed by 4 percent each for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Dr. Benjamin Carson and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as their second choice.
Jeb Bush? He wasn't named by any of the self-identified Republicans or tea party folks. But it's early. Before voters can show enthusiasm, so must Jeb.
His big advantage: Republican primary voters tend to respect seniority. The conservative GOP fiercely resisted Romney, Sen. John McCain in 2008, Sen. Bob Dole in 1996 and the elder George H. W. Bush in 1988, yet the big state party establishment helped put them over the top for the nomination.
The younger George W. Bush was a first-timer but blessed and buoyed up by his familiar name and parentage -- another advantage shared by W's little brother Jeb.
Jeb Bush is a conservative, but not too far right to believe in the power of reasonable compromise to help government do some good for the public without running off its rails. In stature and reputation, he's the proverbial grown-up in the room who could stand tall amid the circus of more extreme voices on the debate stage and ultimately compete for the votes of minorities and moderate swing voters in the general election, which he has called on the rest of his party to do.
That's the back-to-the-center formula that usually wins elections, regardless of party. Whether Republicans will go for it by nominating Jeb Bush remains to be seen. But after having been kept out of the White House for two terms in a row, I think a lot of them will be ready to try.
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E-mail Clarence Page at cpage@tribune.com.
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