John Romano: Time to close the history books, focus on a new era of Lightning hockey
Published in Hockey
TAMPA BAY, Fla. — Makeovers aren’t just for losers. Turns out, even mini dynasties need some freshening up.
So it is for the Lightning. Across the past 10 seasons, there’s not a team in the NHL with more victories than Tampa Bay. No franchise has won more conference titles, and only the Penguins have won as many Stanley Cups. This is what passes for dominance in the salary-cap era.
And yet, while they have been the envy of the league, the Lightning also have been a team in decline. They have not been so bold as to admit that out loud, but their maneuvers in the offseason seem to confirm it.
This was not the typical hand-wringing over trying to keep the gang together in the face of rising salaries. This was a purposeful departure from the formula that had worked so well since this run began with a Stanley Cup final loss to Chicago 10 years ago.
“It’s the reality of our industry,” general manager Julien BriseBois said. “There’s turnover.”
That has been evident for several years. Because of salary-cap restraints, the Lightning had already waved goodbye to a half-dozen or more key contributors to the back-to-back Stanley Cup winners in 2020 and 2021. The core group was the same, but the depth and the identity wavered.
Rather than continue down that slope, the Lightning have adjusted.
Instead of being a diminished team, they have chosen to be a different team.
Steven Stamkos, the face of the franchise and one of the greatest athletes that Tampa Bay has known, is gone. Mikhail Sergachev, the one-time heir apparent to Victor Hedman on the Lightning blue line, is gone. Anthony Duclair, Tanner Jeannot, Alex Barre-Boulet, Matt Dumba, Calvin de Haan, Tyler Motte, Haydn Fleury, Austin Watson. All gone. Of the 24 skaters with the most ice time last season, nearly half are no longer around.
“The last two years, we’ve had two first-round exits. That’s not where we want to be,” said forward Anthony Cirelli. “We’re a team that’s always been in the fight, always had a chance to win since I’ve been here. Sometimes, change is good. Bringing in new voices and personalities.”
There is a cost to winning in the NHL today and it goes beyond payroll expenditures. Prior to the Lightning, only three franchises had won multiple Stanley Cups in the salary-cap era. The subsequent falloffs were all dramatic:
— Chicago won Cups in 2010, 2013 and 2015. They have not won a playoff series since and have missed the postseason six of the last seven years.
— The Kings won Cups in 2012 and 2014. They have not won a playoff series since.
— The Penguins won Cups in 2009, 2016 and 2017. They have not won a playoff series in the last six years.
That’s the legacy the Lightning are trying to avoid, and it won’t be easy. Teams that win multiple Stanley Cups are obviously loaded with talent and when contracts expire, you can either overpay to keep players or contemplate a different type of roster.
The Blackhawks held on to Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Corey Crawford, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook until they were in their mid-30s, and the team slid into obscurity. Ditto for the Penguins with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang.
“Teams that have success, their players price themselves out … (and) tend to go to teams that are on the way up,” BriseBois said. “It kind of recalibrates the league a little bit, the strengths of each team, the balance of power, if you will, within the league.”
The Lightning were threatening to go down a similar road of hopelessly clinging to the past. After four consecutive seasons with a top-10 defense, they slipped to No. 14 in 2022-23 and lost in the first round to Toronto. They fell to No. 22 last season, and lost to Florida in the first round.
They needed to get better at keeping pucks out of their own net, and being a harder team to play in 5-on-5 situations. Sergachev is clearly a skilled player, but part of his appeal is the offensive production he brings as a defenseman. By trading him to Utah, the Lightning got a defense-first player in J.J. Moser and cleared enough money from the salary cap to be able to afford shutdown defenseman Ryan McDonagh, too.
Parting ways with Stamkos was more difficult, but acquiring Jake Guentzel for that spot gives the Lightning a younger skater with a greater capacity to play effectively on both ends of the ice.
None of this guarantees the Lightning can stave off further decline, but it’s a smarter play than hoping to recapture old glories with a team that is older and a roster that is thinner than the past.
“It’s a fine line. You’ve got to have some belief in your core and the things you’ve been preaching and whatnot,” said McDonagh. “But at the same time, there’s ways to tweak things. It’s like anything else in life. If it’s not working, you need to make some changes.
“We’ve had a few big changes here, and now it’s our job as players to change the result and change the ending.”
Diminishing returns?
To paraphrase Lightning GM Julien BriseBois, the NHL’s salary cap is the great equalizer. Teams that have enormous success eventually have enormous payrolls. If you hang on to your stars, you end up robbing your depth. And if you trade too many draft picks in the buildup to a Cup run, you have little support from the minors. In an attempt to keep their window of opportunity open longer, the Lightning parted ways with Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev in the offseason. Time will tell if they fare better than the other teams that have won multiple titles during the salary-cap era.
Pittsburgh Penguins
— The golden age: Pittsburgh won back-to-back Stanley Cup titles in 2015-16 and 2016-17 while going 32-17 in the postseason.
— The reckoning: Penguins won in the first round in 2018-19 and have since lost five consecutive playoff series. Their postseason record since 2019 is 12-21, and they missed the playoffs each of the last two seasons.
Chicago Blackhawks
— The golden age: From 2008-09 to 2014-15, Chicago reached the conference finals five times and won three Stanley Cups. The Blackhawks were 73-44 in the postseason.
— The reckoning: Over the past nine seasons, the Blackhawks have failed to get past the first round. They are 7-13 in the playoffs and have missed the postseason six times.
Los Angeles Kings
— The golden age: In a three-year span from 2011-12 to 2013-14, the Kings reached the conference finals every season and won two Stanley Cups. They were 41-23 in the postseason.
— The reckoning: Los Angeles has not won a playoff series in the last 10 years. The Kings have missed the postseason five times and lost in the first round five times. They are 7-20 in the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Lightning
— The golden age: Between 2014-15 and 2021-22, the Lightning won four Eastern Conference titles and two Stanley Cups. They went 70-42 in six postseasons.
— The reckoning: Tampa Bay has been bounced out of the playoffs in the first round in consecutive seasons. The Lightning are 3-8 in that span.
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