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Greg Cote's Divisional Round playoff picks

Greg Cote, Miami Herald on

Published in Football

Went 2-2 straight-up on wild-card weekend. Called Chargers' outright upset in Baltimore and had Dallas winning. Got unlucky on Chicago when Cody Parkey's shoulda-been winning field goal went boink. Also went 2-2 against the spread last week, with hits on Chargers and Eagles-with-points. Unlucky to miss 'Boys covering thanks to a late Seattle score and 2-point conversion. Not a terrible start to our playoffs, with Colts dominating in Houston last week our only real miscalculation. Now let's kick it up and ride the same mojo that produced our record-setting regular season! Ding. Round two!

When; Overall; Vs. spread

--Last week: 2-2, .500; 2-2, 500

--Season: 179-75-2, .705; 145-104-7, .582

AFC

COLTS (11-6, No. 6 seed) AT CHIEFS (12-4, No. 1)

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Line: KC by 5

Cote's pick: IND 34-30

TV: 4:35 p.m. Saturday, NBC

Upset! Top seed toppled in game that kicks off NFL Divisional Round playoffs. It's a hunch. And a risky one. Few are on board with us here. But Andrew Luck and his Colts enter hot as any of the remaining eight teams -- 10-1 in past 11 games -- while Chiefs have lost 10 of past 11 in postseason. All of the pressure will be on young Patrick Mahomes. More than that, Indianapolis is the better-balanced team here. Though KC is more prolific with the ball, both offenses are good. But only one defense in this game is, as Deshaun Watson learned last week in a 21-7 home loss to Indy. Luck should feast on a Chiefs D that allowed the second-most passing yards this season and the most opponent first downs. KC also led league in most penalties. The best thing KC does on D is pressure the pocket, but Colts neutralize that with a really strong O-line that tends to keep Luck's uni clean. The upset we propose is notable because No. 1-seed Chiefs are 7-1 at home and coming off bye, but I'm liking Colts' strong edge on defense and Luck's experience head-to-head vs. Mahomes on his maiden postseason voyage.

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