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Mirjam Swanson: Are odds in Sparks' favor entering Paige Bueckers sweepstakes?

Mirjam Swanson, The Orange County Register on

Published in Basketball

LOS ANGELES — When the Sparks’ season ends Thursday, they’ll finish with the worst record in franchise history.

And no one is mad about it.

On the contrary. This season – whether the Sparks finish 7-33 or 8-32 – has been a success by so many measures … so long as you ignore the WNBA standings.

Fans came back, the rookies rocked, Dearica Hamby led, the Sparks competed more often than not and still managed to position themselves optimally for the future.

A win is a win is a win? Maybe in the National Women’s Soccer League, which is abolishing its draft. But in the WNBA, like in the NBA or NFL, a win can be a loss, a loss a win.

And in 2024, every loss counted for the Sparks, who could go into the next draft lottery with a combined record of 24-56 over the past two seasons, which gives them a sufficient lead over the Dallas Wings for the best lottery odds in the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes.

The Sparks will have 44.2% chance of selecting No. 1 in a four-pick lottery, in which UConn’s dynamic star guard will be the odds-on favorite to go first.

It does get a little complicated after that, though, depending on whether the Chicago Sky finish with a more favorable draft position than Dallas. If they do, the Wings get their pick thanks to a pick swap that was part of a 2023 trade – and that would give Dallas the next two lottery slots, which come with odds of 27.6% and 17.8%.

Which means, what? The best the Sparks can do now is hope and pray and do everything they can to be in the good graces of the women’s basketball gods.

Developing talented rookie wing Rickea Jackson, one of only 18 rookies in WNBA history to score more than 500 points, isn’t enough. Nursing charismatic rookie center Cameron Brink, 13th in the WNBA in total blocks despite playing only 15 games, back to health after she suffered a torn ACL isn’t enough.

Extending Hamby and Azurà Stevens is not enough. Employing a proven coach like Curt Miller isn’t enough.

Putting on a good show for the 11,044 fans who showed up on average at Crypto.com Arena this summer, climbing from 6,500 last season and 5,600 the season before? Not enough.

The Sparks need to operate like a full-fledged professional basketball franchise.

They need their own facility.

On Wednesday, the WNBA – with its new$2.2 billion media deal and record viewership and attendance – announced that Portland is getting an expansion team in 2026, owned by brother-sister duo of Alex Bhathal and Lisa Bhathal Merage, who will pay $125 million.

And that new team, which expects to play games in the Moda Center, will have its own practice facility. As will the WNBA’s other expansion team, the Golden State Valkyries.

 

They’ll be joining all the other teams around the league with one, even soon the Sky and Wings.

Only the Sparks will be left without a dedicated practice space.

While the Sparks are booking court time at El Camino College, the playoff-bound Phoenix Mercury – who pulled away to beat the Sparks on Tuesday night – will enjoy a $100 million facility that their coach Nate Tibbetts described Tuesday as “the best in the W and a top-five facility in the NBA.”

“I think the fact that (team owner) Mat (Ishbia) made the commitment to do that, it’s gonna raise the level of the other teams because the other players are going to hear and see what we’re trying to do,” said Tibbetts, who was previously an assistant on NBA coaching staffs in Cleveland, Portland and Orlando.

But there’s no indication that the Sparks’ ownership group, which includes Mark Walter, Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten and Eric Holoman, has plans to supply such a facility. I wish we would have gotten word they’re looking into the Playa Vista training center where the Clippers practiced for years before relocating operations to the Intuit Dome recently. But we haven’t.

A shame, because the Sparks could pair of a couple max-level contracts with Hamby and three young stars next season.

And when free agency rolls around, sure, they’ll be able to sell L.A., and a franchise with a rich history as one of the WNBA’s original teams and three championships. But they can’t promise dedicated lockers for safe keeping. Can’t offer privacy or security or guaranteed availability for late-night shooting or offseason training. Can’t show off any of the extra, necessary amenities opponents are working with.

Through its 27 years, WNBA teams that stack top draft picks have a history of effectively and efficiently turning things around. The Seattle Storm, with No. 1 picks Lauren Jackson (2001) and Sue Bird (2002), won titles together twice; the Indiana Fever, with top picks Aliyah Boston (2023) and Caitlin Clark (2024) are playoff-bound.

And, of course, there’s the Aces, who could win back-to-back-to-back titles. They roster back-to-back-to-back No. 1 picks (Kelsey Plum, A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, 2017-19), a talented young core pushed over to the top by Chelsea Grey, the Sparks’ former star point guard, who left L.A. in free agency.

The Sparks could put themselves on a similar trajectory as those teams. They could pair the next No. 1 pick with Brink and Jackson. It would be a big deal, Bueckers with this year’s Nos. 2 and 4 picks, who would have been top selections in many previous drafts.

The Sparks could harness L.A.’s enthusiasm for women’s basketball, people’s excitement over JuJu Watkins at USC and everything that’s been building at UCLA, and fill Crypto.com Arena with customers increasingly will pay to watch great women’s hoops.

They could give L.A. another championship.

But they can’t expect that to happen without providing the infrastructure necessary to develop their young talent, to attract supplemental star power, to satisfy the basketball gods who might want to weigh in on those lottery odds.

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