Who has the edge? A position-by-position breakdown of Tigers vs. Guardians in ALDS.
Published in Baseball
DETROIT — Here's a position-to-position breakdown of the Tigers-Guardians American League Division Series, which gets under way at 1 p.m. Saturday in Cleveland:
Catcher
If you haven't paid much attention to the Tigers, it's easy to dismiss catcher Jake Rogers, because of the barely .600 OPS. But he's a big part of the heart and soul of this team, as a pseudo veteran who steals so many strikes for his pitchers and seems to come up in the clutch at the plate, as he did in getting things started in Game 1 against the Houston Astros with an RBI single on a 3-0 count. His counterpart is the Guardians' Bo Naylor (one of two Naylors on the Cleveland roster), who has a little thump at the plate, albeit with a similar OPS to Rogers, and is steady behind the plate, throwing out runners at a league-average clip, also like Rogers. Edge: Tigers
First base
Spencer Torkelson, a former 1-1 draft pick, isn't the offensive threat he was at the plate for the second half of 2023, and the Tigers are likely going to have to wait until 2025 to see him bust out again. But Torkelson has done some things that have gotten overlooked, including drawing a huge walk in Game 2 instead of trying to be the hero, setting the stage for Andy Ibanez's three-run double to seal the sweep. He also has played some pretty darn good defense over the last month. The other Naylor, Josh Naylor, mans first for the Guardians and is one of the few serious thumper threats (31 homers) in a lineup that, not completely unlike Houston's, is a bit on the front-loaded side. Edge: Guardians
Second base
Many folks like to say the Tigers don't have any stars, with is patently false. Tarik Skubal is a star. So is Riley Greene. And there are plenty of stars-in-the-making, and Colt Keith is high atop that list. After a slow start to his rookie season, after signing that $29 million extension before he even played a game, he figured things out ― on the job, as so many of these kids have. He's got pop that could be a problem in this series, against a mostly right-handed pitching staff, and he's become selective, with four walks vs. the Astros. On the Guardians side is Andres Gimenez, who will challenge the Tigers pitchers and catchers with base running (30 stolen bases), if he gets on base (.298 OBP). Edge: Tigers
Shortstop
If you squint your eyes just hard enough, you might just think that's Alan Trammell playing shortstop for the Tigers. That's not completely fair. One is in the Hall of Fame. The other is just finishing up his second season in the majors. But Trey Sweeney has solidified the position, with super-steady play on defense ― how many key double plays has he started during this run? ― and he's a threat at the plate, against both lefties and righties, despite the .642 OPS. Sweeney's counterpart is Brayan Rocchio, who could be key to the Guardians' offense because he's a switch-hitter in a lefty-loaded lineup that figures to see plenty of Tyler Holton, Brant Hurter and Sean Guenther. Edge: Tigers
Third base
Who plays here for the Tigers will depend on if the Guardians are starting a righty or lefty. Against righties, it's likely to be Zach McKinstry, who got the call in Game 2 in Houston and made a great defensive play and had Detroit's first hit (Jace Jung is an option, too, if AJ Hinch likes a certain matchup). Matt Vierling, likely to start every game, is the third baseman when a lefty is the mound for the opposition, because it allows Wenceel Perez to play the outfield. Vierling's OPS is .735, second-most on this team for a player who's played at least 90 games (Riley Greene). The Guardians, of course, have noted Tiger killer Jose Ramirez, who has a .966 OPS in 155 games vs. Detroit. Edge: Guardians
Left field
Greene is the best position player on this Tigers team, though he was shut down over two games against the Astros (1 for 9 with a double and a walk), and the Guardians have silenced him in 2024, too. He has a .525 OPS against the Guardians this season, and at Progressive Field, it's been just .315. Don't be surprised if he rights the ship on that front this series, as he had many clutch hits down the stretch during the regular season, against some good pitching. He's also excellent in the field. The Guardians got a key piece back from a back injury late in the season in Steven Kwan, who, like Greene, does pretty much everything well, albeit not against the Tigers in 2024 (.573 OPS). Edge: Tigers
Center field
The Tigers are now 56-28 in games in which Parker Meadows plays, including the two wins against the Astros, as he's become one of the game's most exciting young players, certainly on defense, where he makes one highlight catch after another. Offensively, he hit the home run to break the ice in Game 2 against Houston, against a nasty Hunter Brown pitch in on the hands, and also beat out the double play in Game 1, allowing Detroit to score three runs with two outs. He epitomizes the theme of this Tigers team: All effort, all the time. The Guardians run out Lane Thomas, acquired from the Washington Nationals at the deadline. He's hitting .143 since Sept. 15. Edge: Tigers
Right field
The only switch-hitter on the Tigers roster is Perez, who had the first hit of the 2024 postseason. (If you bet that back in July, congrats on your retirement.) His OPS is more than 100 points higher from the left side than the right. Like Vierling, he's plenty competent enough to play against both righties and lefties. The Guardians have options here, but could go with Will Brennan, whose overall numbers this season don't exactly jump off the page. But he does have an OPS well over .800 over the last month, for a Guardians team that watched its offense go a bit flat down the stretch and now have had a week off since its last game. Edge: Even
Designated hitter
The Tigers got to this point for a reason and a plan, and manager AJ Hinch wasn't going to go away from that in the playoffs, as he sat Kerry Carpenter in Game 1 against Astros lefty Framber Valdez. Carpenter destroys right-handed pitching, with all but one of his 18 homers coming against righties, and Justyn-Henry Malloy is the better option against left-handed pitching and worked some nice at-bats against the Astros. Rookie Kyle Manzardo has emerged as the Guardians' best option at the DH slot, hitting some big-time home runs down the stretch (some benefiting the Tigers as they chased the wild card) as a September call-up, with an .873 OPS over the final month. Edge: Tigers
Starting pitching
The Tigers' rotation begins and ends — literally — with Tarik Skubal, who is going to win the Cy Young Award unanimously (all due respect to Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase). He was dominating in his Game 1 win over the Astros, and even though he won't start Game 1 in this series, he'll still have a chance to pitch twice, with the two games and two off-days between Game 2 and Game 5. The Guardians have their issues with the rotation, after losing ace Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery in April. Right-hander Tanner Bibee will get the ball in Game 1, and maybe former Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd in Game 2 after making eight starts down the stretch. There are question marks after that, however. Edge: Tigers
Relief pitching
It's chaos for the Tigers, with everyone available at any time (except for Skubal, of course; he'll only start). Hinch's maneuvering of openers and the guys who've followed have baffled opposing managers for the better of two months, including the Astros' Joe Espada over two games in Houston. I mean, Tigers fans are dying to see guys named Beau Brieske, Guenther, Brenan Hanifee, Holton and Will Vest come out of the bullpen. What world do we live in? Jackson Jobe got his feet wet, too. The bullpen is the Guardians' bread and butter, with an MLB-best 2.57 ERA, and 1.05 WHIP, led by closer Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, Eli Morgan and lefty Tim Herrin. Edge: Even
Bench
The Tigers' bench looks different depending on the day and the opposing pitcher, but typically, the reserve corps starts with Andy Ibanez, the hero in Game 2 in Houston, where he smashed a Josh Hader fastball in to the left-field corner for the game-winning, three-run double. He's joined by Malloy and even Dillon Dingler. On days when he starts, then the bench will feature the likes of Carpenter, and McKinstry and Keith. It's a deep bench, if not well-known outside of the 313. The Guardians have thump at Stephen Vogt's disposal, too, including Jhonkensy Noel, a rookie right-handed slugger with 13 homers. Both teams were top-10 in MLB in pinch-hits. Edge: Tigers
Manager
In case you haven't been paying attention to the Tigers until recently (you're forgiven, and, oh, you have company), it shouldn't have taken more than the two games in Houston to realize why then-Tigers GM Al Avila made a phone call just moments after the 2020 World Series ended. That was when Hinch's suspension, from the sign-stealing scandal in Houston, was lifted, and Avila knew then what we've all come to know: Hinch is a difference-maker. He has opposing managers on their toes at best and on their backs at worst, game-planning for every possible situation, then executing to near-perfection. Stephen Vogt, AL manager of the year front-runner, is managing his first playoff games. Edge: Tigers
Prediction
One of the reasons I liked the Astros matchup better for the Tigers than the Baltimore Orioles in the first round was familiarity. It had been several months since Detroit and Houston had played, and this is darn near a whole new Tigers team over the last two months. The unfamiliarity plays into the Tigers' favor, big-time, as many foes certainly can now attest. And the Guardians haven't played Detroit since right before the clock struck on the July 30 trade deadline, when the Tigers were sellers and looking ahead to 2025. Two weeks later, they got hot, and have been the best team in baseball ever since. It's also worth noting, the Guardians will have gone a full week without playing a game. Layoffs in baseball, no bueno, as Detroit fans know all too well from the 2006 and 2012 World Series. Pick: Tigers in five
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