The issue with Busch is that he's been unpredictable at Homestead in the past. One year he wins it all (and his only championship in 2015) but another he comes in 39th. One year he's fourth, another he's 32nd. Now, he's been good much more often recently than he's been bad but the point still stands. He shouldn't have anything catastrophic happen but it wouldn't be the first time.
And then there's Kevin Harvick, who has been good all season but more consistent of late. Harvick only had one win before the playoffs and only one playoff win since (at Texas) to get him into the final four, so he hasn't had the upper-level success some of the other drivers have had.
Still, he's peaking at the right time and has been terrific at Homestead in years past. He's finished in the Top 3 seven times and he's also got a championship from 2014, the one year he won there.
So those are the arguments. Now, who is the prediction? Drum roll please ...
It has to be Truex -- and what better year for him to earn his first championship? He's been the most dominant car on the track all year long, even if that hasn't always led to a win. Homestead hasn't been kind to him in the past, but he also hasn't had the sort of success in a season that he's had in 2017. This is the year that changes, and this is the year it changes at Homestead, too.
And this is the year Martin Truex Jr. walks away with the NASCAR championship trophy he so deserves.
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