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Netanyahu prepares for Trump meeting with fragile grip on power

Galit Altstein, Bloomberg News on

Published in Political News

Talks between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday are set to determine the course of Israel’s war against Hamas and, potentially, the prime minister’s ability to remain in power.

In the first visit by a foreign leader to Trump’s White House, the two will discuss the ongoing truce in Gaza, which the U.S. President’s Middle East envoy has indicated he wants to make permanent. That would help with larger regional moves high on Trump’s agenda, such as the normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia and ending Iran’s perceived nuclear threat.

The future of Netanyahu’s ruling coalition hinges on being able to claim victory in the war against Tehran-backed Hamas, and at least one of his key political allies insists that’s impossible without a return to fighting. Whether or not Netanyahu can square those domestic objectives with the goals of his chief international ally could decide the political fate of Israel’s longest serving leader.

“We’ll deal with critical issues facing Israel and our region: victory over Hamas, achieving the release of all our hostages and dealing with the Iranian terror axis in all its components,” Netanyahu said on Sunday before leaving for the U.S.

Approval for Netanyahu’s government among Israelis has recovered somewhat after plunging in the aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attacks that triggered the war in Gaza, according to polls conducted by Ma’ariv newspaper. Yet it has dipped in recent weeks, with many Israeli dismayed at Hamas militants returning to the streets despite almost 16 months of heavy bombardment and ground attacks.

That sense of anger is amplified in Netanyahu’s cabinet. One minister resigned after the truce was announced in mid-January. Another, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has vowed to pull his far-right Religious Zionism party out of the coalition if Israel doesn’t restart fighting when the initial phase of the deal ends in early March.

Netanyahu’s security cabinet has a formal goal of destroying Hamas as a military and governing entity, and the group’s grandstanding during recent hostage-release events makes it hard to argue that’s been achieved.

“The moment I realize there’s no intention to resume fighting, I will not only resign, but overthrow the government,” Smotrich said in an interview.

If Smotrich’s party leaves, the prime minister will lose his majority in the Knesset, or parliament. Even if one or more opposition parties back him, he would struggle to see through the almost two years to the next scheduled election.

“Netanyahu may need to choose between Trump and his far-right allies,” said Shalom Yerushalmi, a veteran political analyst. “If he chooses the first, he could quickly lose his majority.”

Netanyahu’s visit to Washington comes at a crucial time. Talks on a second phase of the ceasefire — which is meant to lead to a permanent end to hostilities — have just started. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy and a close friend of the U.S. president, is key to those negotiations.

He and Netanyahu had a “positive and friendly” meeting on Monday, the Israeli leader’s office said, adding that a government delegation will travel to Qatar later this week “to discuss technical details related to the continued implementation of the agreement.”

When Netanyahu returns from the U.S., he “will convene the Security Cabinet to discuss Israel’s overall positions regarding the second stage of the deal, which will guide the continuation of the negotiations,” his office said.

Qatar is, along with Egypt, mediating between Israel and Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and many other countries. On Monday, the Gulf state’s prime minister said it would be “sad to risk a Gaza truce for political interests,” an apparent reference to Netanyahu’s far-right allies.

Hamas agreed to release 33 of the roughly 100 hostages still held in Gaza during the current phase of the truce, an agreement for which Trump took credit. In exchange, Israel is set to free more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.

 

So far, 13 hostages and almost 600 prisoners have been let go.

The second phase is meant to include further hostage-prisoner exchanges. Hamas will push for Israel to withdraw all troops from Gaza, including the strategic Philadelphi corridor along the Egyptian border. It’s far from clear if Netanyahu, who’s said the presence of troops along the corridor is needed to prevent future attacks on his country, will accept that.

While the Trump administration has signaled it wants the ceasefire to move forward, its messaging has been nuanced.

Witkoff said in an interview with Fox TV on Jan. 22 that Trump’s priority is to get into phase two. Yet the president’s special envoy for hostage affairs, Adam Boehler, told Israel’s Channel 12 a week later that the ultimate goal is to bring back all hostages, “and if that means we have to resume the war and there’s a higher chance, then that’s Israel’s decision.”

Peace in Gaza will be crucial if Trump’s to achieve a wider Middle East deal that includes the normalization of diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. That’s a long-held goal of the U.S. — Trump included — and was at an advanced stage before Oct. 7 derailed the process.

Since then, Riyadh has said the establishment of a Palestinian state — or at least Israel taking firm steps toward allowing one — is a non-negotiable condition of normalization. Netanyahu has for years said a deal with the kingdom would bolster Israel’s security and weaken Iran, though his government and much of the Israeli public are firmly against Palestinian independence.

Trump’s suggestion that Palestinians in Gaza relocate to Egypt and Jordan while the territory is rebuilt may also come up in his talks with Netanyahu. The idea’s been rejected by both countries and widely criticized in the Middle East as something that would hinder Palestinians’ goal for statehood.

Mohammad Mustafa, prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, which runs parts of the West Bank, told Bloomberg last week the difficult task of rebuilding Gaza could be done without displacing anybody.

Still, Egypt and Jordan are dependent on the U.S. for financial aid, and Trump has said repeatedly he expects them to take in Palestinians. ““I’d like to get them living in an area where they can live without disruption and revolution and violence,” the U.S. President told reporters last week.

Military Exemptions

Netanyahu is getting some support for an extended ceasefire from other coalition allies, namely the Jewish Orthodox parties. But their backing for peace is secondary to their main goal — maintaining the exemption from military service for ultra-Orthodox men. A bill is being debated in parliament after the Supreme Court ruled the historic waiver is no longer sustainable.

Israelis largely think the same, given that hundreds of thousands of reservists have had to serve in the military for months at a time since Oct. 7, at huge cost for them personally and the Israeli economy. But for Netanyahu, the Orthodox parties are as important as those on the far right in holding the coalition together, and they have threatened to vote against this year’s budget if they don’t get their way.

“It’s unclear how Netanyahu will get through these obstacles,” says Barak Seri, a former political adviser.

—With assistance from Justin Sink.


©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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