Politics

/

ArcaMax

Irish vote close as exit poll puts PM Simon Harris, Sinn Fein level

Olivia Fletcher and Jennifer Duggan, Bloomberg News on

Published in Political News

Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris’s Fine Gael party is locked in a virtual dead heat with Sinn Fein in the general election, suggesting his decision to go to the country early didn’t yield the advantage he predicted.

Fine Gael won 21% of first-preference votes in Friday’s election, the official exit poll showed. Sinn Fein won 21.1%, while Fianna Fail, Fine Gael’s coalition partner, was on 19.5.%. The poll had a margin of error of 1.4%.

Even so, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail going back into government is still the most likely outcome — both have ruled out working with Sinn Fein. But a tight race is not ideal for Harris, especially if he emerges with less support than his rival.

The premier called the vote, which wasn’t expected to be held until March, after his party surged in opinion polls since he became Taoiseach in April. That, plus a large giveaway budget in October and a slide in support for Sinn Fein, made it seem like the optimal time to seek a new mandate.

Whoever forms the next government will do so at an opportune time, with Ireland enjoying a budget surplus that is rare among European nations and tax receipts expected to soar further. Management of Ireland’s billions has been front and center in the campaign, with parties competing on promises to fix infrastructure and end a housing shortage.

But Harris’s election campaign was beset with slip-ups, the worst a viral video of him walking away from a disability care worker and dismissing her view that the government wasn’t doing enough. Harris later apologized.

Based on the exit poll, Fine Gael’s support has slumped since an Irish Times survey in September — before the election announcement — showed Fine Gael at 27%, Sinn Fein at 20% and Fianna Fail at 19%.

“If the 21% is accurate, it is still lower than what Fine Gael were running pre the calling of the election,” Gail McElroy, political science professor at Trinity College Dublin, told RTE. “They might have hoped at one stage having 24, 25% — so it is probably a little depressed.”

For Mary Lou McDonald’s Sinn Fein, the exit poll points to a slight recovery after a turbulent few months.

At the start of the year, Sinn Fein had appeared on course to form a government for the first time since Ireland gained independence in 1922. But the left-leaning party struggled to adapt to growing concerns about immigration, leading to a lackluster performance in local and European elections in June.

Matt Carthy, Sinn Fein’s director of elections, said it was a “phenomenal result” for the party, citing the improvement in vote share compared with the summer.

 

But forming a government looks all but impossible for Sinn Fein even if it wins the popular vote. Without the option of a coalition with Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, there is no clear route to power.

Instead, a repeat of 2020 — when Sinn Fein narrowly won the popular vote but Fine Gael and Fianna Fail formed the government — still looks likely.

Even out of power, Sinn Fein’s rise is reshaping Irish politics after Fianna Fail and Fine Gael led every government since the state was formed 100 years ago.

“The wider picture here is that we’re seeing further fragmentation within the Irish political system, across many smaller parties and indeed with many independents,” Jack Chambers, finance minister and Fianna Fail’s deputy leader, told RTE after the exit poll was released.

In Ireland’s electoral system, a version of proportional representation with voters ranking preferred candidates, parties need to win 88 seats for a majority in the 174-seat Dail, or parliament. But no party fielded enough candidates to reach that threshold on its own.

Counting begins at 9 a.m. on Saturday, with a clearer picture likely to emerge by the afternoon or later. Forming a coalition could take weeks of negotiations, though the there is an added incentive to have a government in place when Donald Trump takes office in the U.S.

The exit poll suggests that if Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were to form a coalition, they would need more than one smaller party to go into government. It’s not clear who they would bring in. Their coalition partner last time, the Greens, are expected to have fewer seats this time.

For the two incumbent centrist parties, the support of a smaller center-left group would be ideal. According to the exit poll, the Social Democrats are on 5.8%, Labour at 5% and the Green Party at 4%.

The exit poll is based on more than 5,000 interviews conducted immediately after people voted at polling stations across 43 constituencies across the country.

_____


©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

Comments

blog comments powered by Disqus

 

Related Channels

ACLU

ACLU

By The ACLU
Amy Goodman

Amy Goodman

By Amy Goodman
Armstrong Williams

Armstrong Williams

By Armstrong Williams
Austin Bay

Austin Bay

By Austin Bay
Ben Shapiro

Ben Shapiro

By Ben Shapiro
Betsy McCaughey

Betsy McCaughey

By Betsy McCaughey
Bill Press

Bill Press

By Bill Press
Bonnie Jean Feldkamp

Bonnie Jean Feldkamp

By Bonnie Jean Feldkamp
Cal Thomas

Cal Thomas

By Cal Thomas
Christine Flowers

Christine Flowers

By Christine Flowers
Clarence Page

Clarence Page

By Clarence Page
Danny Tyree

Danny Tyree

By Danny Tyree
David Harsanyi

David Harsanyi

By David Harsanyi
Debra Saunders

Debra Saunders

By Debra Saunders
Dennis Prager

Dennis Prager

By Dennis Prager
Dick Polman

Dick Polman

By Dick Polman
Erick Erickson

Erick Erickson

By Erick Erickson
Froma Harrop

Froma Harrop

By Froma Harrop
Jacob Sullum

Jacob Sullum

By Jacob Sullum
Jamie Stiehm

Jamie Stiehm

By Jamie Stiehm
Jeff Robbins

Jeff Robbins

By Jeff Robbins
Jessica Johnson

Jessica Johnson

By Jessica Johnson
Jim Hightower

Jim Hightower

By Jim Hightower
Joe Conason

Joe Conason

By Joe Conason
Joe Guzzardi

Joe Guzzardi

By Joe Guzzardi
John Micek

John Micek

By John Micek
John Stossel

John Stossel

By John Stossel
Josh Hammer

Josh Hammer

By Josh Hammer
Judge Andrew Napolitano

Judge Andrew Napolitano

By Judge Andrew P. Napolitano
Laura Hollis

Laura Hollis

By Laura Hollis
Marc Munroe Dion

Marc Munroe Dion

By Marc Munroe Dion
Michael Barone

Michael Barone

By Michael Barone
Michael Reagan

Michael Reagan

By Michael Reagan
Mona Charen

Mona Charen

By Mona Charen
Oliver North and David L. Goetsch

Oliver North and David L. Goetsch

By Oliver North and David L. Goetsch
R. Emmett Tyrrell

R. Emmett Tyrrell

By R. Emmett Tyrrell
Rachel Marsden

Rachel Marsden

By Rachel Marsden
Rich Lowry

Rich Lowry

By Rich Lowry
Robert B. Reich

Robert B. Reich

By Robert B. Reich
Ruben Navarrett Jr

Ruben Navarrett Jr

By Ruben Navarrett Jr.
Ruth Marcus

Ruth Marcus

By Ruth Marcus
S.E. Cupp

S.E. Cupp

By S.E. Cupp
Salena Zito

Salena Zito

By Salena Zito
Star Parker

Star Parker

By Star Parker
Stephen Moore

Stephen Moore

By Stephen Moore
Susan Estrich

Susan Estrich

By Susan Estrich
Ted Rall

Ted Rall

By Ted Rall
Terence P. Jeffrey

Terence P. Jeffrey

By Terence P. Jeffrey
Tim Graham

Tim Graham

By Tim Graham
Tom Purcell

Tom Purcell

By Tom Purcell
Veronique de Rugy

Veronique de Rugy

By Veronique de Rugy
Victor Joecks

Victor Joecks

By Victor Joecks
Wayne Allyn Root

Wayne Allyn Root

By Wayne Allyn Root

Comics

Bob Englehart Rick McKee Bart van Leeuwen Gary Markstein Kirk Walters Steve Breen