Politics

/

ArcaMax

From deadlock to landslide: Trump's big margin still played out in line with pre-election polling

Matthew Medsger, Boston Herald on

Published in Political News

With his second election victory, former President Donald Trump seems to have defied the odds to perform the improbable and take both the popular vote and Electoral College after previously losing the White House.

However, a look at the numbers show that Tuesday night’s results fell well within the margins of polling, which never showed either Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris with a definitive lead but did indicate either could end up running away with the election.

“There was a lot of uncertainty about how all of this would go,” University of New Hampshire presidential historian Dante Scala told the Herald. “When you look at the polls, and everything is showing you a jump ball, well that’s just one possible outcome. But, we also know, if you understand polling, that it’s possible that there could be some error in there or the possibility that it might go one way or the other.”

According to Scala, polling in a state like New Hampshire proved fairly accurate, with Harris taking the state but Republican Kelly Ayotte winning the gubernatorial contest just as surveys suggested they might, and that can be seen across a number of more significant contests.

Trump’s victory was made possible after he smashed through the so-called “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Ahead of the voting, surveys generally showed Harris and Trump tied or with a slight lead on the other, but always within the error margins.

With vote counting mostly done, unofficial tallies show Trump took Michigan by a one-and-a-half point margin, Pennsylvania by two points, and Wisconsin by less than one point — just as the polls predicted.

Nationally, polls leading up to the election showed a similar split, with either candidate up by a point or two, but never leading outside the margins. As the vote tally stands now, Trump is ahead by 3.5 points, landing right where the polling showed he might.

 

Why didn’t the election go the other way, if that’s what the polls suggested could happen?

That’s a good question, Scala said, and the losing party will likely spend the coming weeks looking for directions in which to aim their finger-pointing, but the polling and the results demonstrate a long-standing fact about presidential politics.

“I think the simple explanation may turn out to be the best one — the Democratic incumbent was quite unpopular and that unpopularity tends to rub off on the party,” he said. “Sometimes democracies act in a very binary way. There is the party in power, and the party out of power, and if you don’t like what the party in power did, you choose the party out of power.”

One way or the other though, Scala said, it’s quite clear who won this election, even if polling predicted a closer outcome.

“It’s over,” he said. “Democracies make decisions. That’s how it works. Do they always make wise decisions? Well, democracy’s record can be a rather checkered one,” he said.

_____


©2024 MediaNews Group, Inc. Visit at bostonherald.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

Comments

blog comments powered by Disqus

 

Related Channels

ACLU

ACLU

By The ACLU
Amy Goodman

Amy Goodman

By Amy Goodman
Armstrong Williams

Armstrong Williams

By Armstrong Williams
Austin Bay

Austin Bay

By Austin Bay
Ben Shapiro

Ben Shapiro

By Ben Shapiro
Betsy McCaughey

Betsy McCaughey

By Betsy McCaughey
Bill Press

Bill Press

By Bill Press
Bonnie Jean Feldkamp

Bonnie Jean Feldkamp

By Bonnie Jean Feldkamp
Cal Thomas

Cal Thomas

By Cal Thomas
Christine Flowers

Christine Flowers

By Christine Flowers
Clarence Page

Clarence Page

By Clarence Page
Danny Tyree

Danny Tyree

By Danny Tyree
David Harsanyi

David Harsanyi

By David Harsanyi
Debra Saunders

Debra Saunders

By Debra Saunders
Dennis Prager

Dennis Prager

By Dennis Prager
Dick Polman

Dick Polman

By Dick Polman
Erick Erickson

Erick Erickson

By Erick Erickson
Froma Harrop

Froma Harrop

By Froma Harrop
Jacob Sullum

Jacob Sullum

By Jacob Sullum
Jamie Stiehm

Jamie Stiehm

By Jamie Stiehm
Jeff Robbins

Jeff Robbins

By Jeff Robbins
Jessica Johnson

Jessica Johnson

By Jessica Johnson
Jim Hightower

Jim Hightower

By Jim Hightower
Joe Conason

Joe Conason

By Joe Conason
Joe Guzzardi

Joe Guzzardi

By Joe Guzzardi
John Micek

John Micek

By John Micek
John Stossel

John Stossel

By John Stossel
Josh Hammer

Josh Hammer

By Josh Hammer
Judge Andrew Napolitano

Judge Andrew Napolitano

By Judge Andrew P. Napolitano
Laura Hollis

Laura Hollis

By Laura Hollis
Marc Munroe Dion

Marc Munroe Dion

By Marc Munroe Dion
Michael Barone

Michael Barone

By Michael Barone
Michael Reagan

Michael Reagan

By Michael Reagan
Mona Charen

Mona Charen

By Mona Charen
Oliver North and David L. Goetsch

Oliver North and David L. Goetsch

By Oliver North and David L. Goetsch
R. Emmett Tyrrell

R. Emmett Tyrrell

By R. Emmett Tyrrell
Rachel Marsden

Rachel Marsden

By Rachel Marsden
Rich Lowry

Rich Lowry

By Rich Lowry
Robert B. Reich

Robert B. Reich

By Robert B. Reich
Ruben Navarrett Jr

Ruben Navarrett Jr

By Ruben Navarrett Jr.
Ruth Marcus

Ruth Marcus

By Ruth Marcus
S.E. Cupp

S.E. Cupp

By S.E. Cupp
Salena Zito

Salena Zito

By Salena Zito
Star Parker

Star Parker

By Star Parker
Stephen Moore

Stephen Moore

By Stephen Moore
Susan Estrich

Susan Estrich

By Susan Estrich
Ted Rall

Ted Rall

By Ted Rall
Terence P. Jeffrey

Terence P. Jeffrey

By Terence P. Jeffrey
Tim Graham

Tim Graham

By Tim Graham
Tom Purcell

Tom Purcell

By Tom Purcell
Veronique de Rugy

Veronique de Rugy

By Veronique de Rugy
Victor Joecks

Victor Joecks

By Victor Joecks
Wayne Allyn Root

Wayne Allyn Root

By Wayne Allyn Root

Comics

Monte Wolverton John Cole Rick McKee Pat Byrnes Ed Wexler Andy Marlette