David Valadao vs. Rudy Salas for Congress: What to know about this California tossup election

One of the most contentious House of Representatives races in the country is unfolding in California’s rural 22nd Congressional District.

Nonpartisan political analysts say that the race between GOP Rep. David Valadao and former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, a Democrat, is a tossup. It’s a rematch from 2022, when Salas lost to Valadao by 3 percentage points.

The Bee has spoken to nonpartisan analysts at The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball over the past year about the race, which is drawing a lot of national attention to the San Joaquin Valley, a politically purple agricultural section of California.

“What’s different about this cycle than previous cycles is that early outreach to people and early education to folks, and then showing them and helping them connect with us about why is this election so important for them and their families,” Salas, 47, said in an interview.

“I think the things that have the biggest impact on why control of the House, and especially control this district, are so important when you look at things like water, energy and public safety,” Valadao, 47, said in an interview.

There are 220 Republicans, 211 Democrats and four vacancies in the House. Three of those empty seats were held by Democrats, one by a Republican. The number for control of the chamber is 218, meaning Democrats need to flip four seats nationwide to win control of the House.

Valadao and Salas grew up in the San Joaquin Valley.

Valadao is a dairy farmer who served in the Assembly for a term before Congress. He is a member of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, which writes government spending bills, and House Budget Committee.

Salas served in the Assembly for a decade before leaving to pursue his 2022 congressional bid. He was on the Bakersfield City Council before being elected to the Legislature and grew up working in the fields with family members.

Legislative issues touted by the candidates concern affordability, water, health care, immigration and public safety.

The 22nd district, which includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties, has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

It is one of more than a dozen congressional districts across the country held by GOP congressmen where President Joe Biden would have beaten former President Donald Trump in 2020 had current legislative boundaries been in place. Boundaries were redrawn to reflect the 2020 census. Voters in the new 22nd would have picked Biden by 13 points in 2020.

It’s a Latino-majority voting-age district with a large population of young people.

But the district tends to have very low turnout, leading older, white, more conservative voters to disproportionately weigh in on elections there.

Valadao has been in the House since 2013. He lost his seat to a Democrat in 2018 before winning it back in 2020.

“He is a survivor, and he’s been able to win elections when the top of the ticket is breaking against him,” said Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, in an August interview. Inside Elections, unlike The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, rates the race as tilting Republican.

Salas has fundraised well against Valadao recently, though the Republican retains an edge in overall funds.

While campaign finances are far from the only factor in determining an election, cash on hand lets candidates spend more on advertisements, events and other supplies necessary to a campaign. It’s also good to reserve money in case of unexpected issues.

Campaign funds come from a wide range of sources, including those not specified in the candidate’s official report, from individual donors, political action committees, other lawmakers and joint-fundraising groups.

Salas’ campaign committee raked in more than $1.3 million from the beginning of April to end of June, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission reports, which became available in July. Valadao pulled in $615,000 during that same period.

Valadao has more than $2 million on hand to Salas’ more than $1.7 million.

Just as national monetary attention floods into the San Joaquin Valley, national issues are key to the race, analysts said.

“Those local issues do matter,” said Eric Covey, a Cook Political Report analyst, in August. “But so many of these House races have become nationalized, and we’re going to see that the dominant issues that all these other races are focused on are also going to be the dominant issues in the Central Valley races.”