In Bucks County, Pennsylvania, a razor-thin margin and voter apathy ahead of 2024 presidential election

DOYLESTOWN, Pa. — When Hannah Reed and her family moved from the Spartanburg, S.C., area to Bucks County during the first year of the coronavirus pandemic, they knew they would be coming to a completely different region — not just culturally, but also politically.

Reed, 30, and her husband moved to Langhorne for new jobs — they work in supply chain management and the transportation logistics industry. A political independent, she's still undecided on whom to support in the upcoming presidential election.

But as a supporter of Republican Donald Trump in 2016 and Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, she's perhaps a prime example of the swing voter whom both Trump and Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris need to capture in November if they want to win this critical swing state.

Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes are viewed as a crown jewel in the Electoral College math of presidential politics.

Reed has felt that political importance since moving here. In South Carolina, she said, many voters have more traditionally conservative viewpoints, and it can be difficult to have dissenting points of view.

Here, in what is statistically the most politically purple part of Pennsylvania, the information ecosystem around elections is different, Reed said. And it's not all negative.

"There's a lot more access to information in a swing state in order to make an informed decision," she said while shopping at the Walmart in Tullytown with two of her three children. "That was something that hit me hard when I moved up here."

With fewer than 90 days until the election, it's now a sprint for Harris and Trump, along with their vice presidential picks — Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance, respectively — to win undecided voters like those in deep purple Bucks County, one of the vaunted "collar counties" bordering Philadelphia. It has a population of just over 645,000 and is almost evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.

Long history of purple politics

The razor-thin margin between registered Republicans and registered Democrats here is 0.1% — just 460 people — according to the Pennsylvania Department of State, as of Aug. 5.

Patricia K. Poprik, chair of the county's Republican Committee, said there have been ebbs and flows in voter registration: Republicans held a slight advantage in the late 1990s through early 2000s; Democrats gained the advantage around 2007, and then the GOP grabbed a slim advantage earlier this year.

The county has not voted for a Republican for president since 1988, but the last three presidential elections here have been decided by less than 5 points. And it has a Republican congressman, Brian Fitzpatrick, who is widely viewed as one of the most moderate members of the U.S. House.

That all indicates that moderates in each party — along with the 61,568 people registered as unaffiliated or independent — can be critical.

In a sea of purple politics, Jerry Buckley immediately labels himself a centrist, but that doesn't mean he's persuadable.

"The Democrats could put a cup of coffee on the ballot, and I'd vote for it," said the 62-year-old marketing professional from Doylestown.

His joke is perhaps indicative of many voters here — they're more likely voting against the other side as opposed to being amped up for their own candidate.

"I think most voters are voting against Trump, or they're voting against the Democrats," Buckley said.

Frustration with national politics is more evident here than enthusiasm.

That's significant in a place where evenly divided sides will fortify the importance of voter turnout.

Poprik remains optimistic that Republicans can carry the county this year, given the number of volunteers and people collecting Republican candidate signs from the party's headquarters in Doylestown.

"I should put a video camera here and you should see how many people walk through this door for signs. And what is it, August?" she said. "I think this all bodes well, that our county's in play," Poprik said.

Bucks County is a mini battleground in one of the most closely watched states in presidential politics.

Diane M. Ellis-Marseglia, chair of the county's board of commissioners, is a Democrat who was first elected in 2007. County voters are perhaps more likely to split their tickets than in more partisan places, she said.

"People in Bucks County are a dichotomy, and there's people from all different incomes and all different educational experiences," Marseglia said. "And they are all really thinking about things, and I think they really make choices when they vote."

Among voters, a sense of apathy — even if they're decided

Jennifer Reinert has never voted in a presidential election and believes 2024 will be no different.

Reinert, in her 40s, lives in Quakertown and works as a quality technician for Mars Fishcare in Chalfont. She said she gets a lot of flak from coworkers — both Democrats and Republicans.

"Every time I get into these debates at work, they say I need to register to vote," she said.

Multiple other residents, from the more rural areas of northern and central Bucks to the dense inner suburbs of north and northeastern Philadelphia, expressed similar sentiments: usually some variation of "ugh" or an eye roll when asked about Harris or Trump — and a lack of interest in the election.

Even those favoring one candidate or the other understand.

Nick Spano, 23, a Republican who favors Trump, said he often avoids political conversations at his work in auto sales.

Spano, who lives in the Perkasie area, likes Trump's record on the economy and foreign relations. But he understands that some county residents might be reluctant to vote, given the current temperature around national politics and frustration over the economy, immigration and overall morale of the country.

"I feel like people are up in arms about a lot of different things," he said.

Buckley said he believes most voters aren't in love with either presidential candidate, and their decision will be to defeat one or the other.

He understands apathy and frustration, especially among younger voters. But the differences between the candidates on the issues are so stark that people should pick a candidate and vote, he said.

William Simmons, a 41-year-old construction worker from Levittown, is a self-described "always Trump" Republican. Four years ago, he moved outside of Philadelphia, where he acknowledged that — as a Republican — he had little power as a voter.

He said he figures some of his coworkers are liberal, but they don't talk about politics. He said he supports Trump mainly for economic reasons. During Biden's term, he said, he has paid triple for materials for work, and he worries about being able to provide for his four kids.

Bucks County's role in November — and beyond

Poprik and Marseglia may be on opposite sides of the political aisle, but they do agree: Bucks County voters are intelligent enough to vote on candidates' positions on issues, not their personalities.

When local Republicans canvass prospective voters, they talk to them about kitchen-table issues: immigration, the economy, the cost of housing, Poprik said. Trump's campaign can be successful in Bucks if they prove his record is better, she said.

"I'm not looking for somebody to be my valentine, as they say," Poprik said. "I'm looking for somebody to be the chess board to make the right moves for my country ... forget the personalities. It's the policies that are going to drive the selection."

Marseglia said the competitiveness of recent presidential elections — along with a partisan split between local elected officials — is an indication that Bucks will remain purple and competitive in 2024.

"I'm sure the Republicans hope they're leaning it red. We hope we're leaning it blue, and we always end up in purple. It's motivating, but frustrating," she said.

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