Michigan sets matchups in Senate race, House battlegrounds

Voters in Michigan picked their nominees for several key races this fall, including a Senate race that could help determine which party controls the chamber, as well as for a handful of House races that are expected to be competitive.

Slotkin-Rogers matchup set

Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers will face off for an open Senate seat this fall.

Slotkin, a third-term House member, had 75 percent of the vote when The Associated Press called the Democratic primary at 9 p.m. Eastern time. She defeated actor Hill Harper, who was seeking to become Michigan’s first Black senator.

Rogers, meanwhile, had 70 percent of the vote when the AP called the Republican primary at the same time. Former Rep. Justin Amash had 12 percent, while physician Sherry O’Donnell had 10 percent.

The Slotkin-Rogers matchup means that both parties will have their favored candidates on the ballot in November. It’s expected to be among the most competitive Senate races in the nation this year, with a Tilt Democratic rating from Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.

Slotkin starts the general election campaign with a major cash advantage. She had $8.7 million on hand as of July 17, compared to the $2.5 million that Rogers had on hand.

Great Lakes Conservatives Fund, a super PAC supporting Rogers that has already spent $4.7 million, said Tuesday a new two-week broadcast TV ad buy in the Detroit market costing $1 million would start by next week.

A memo from Jason McBride, the group’s president, said that in addition to ad buys, the group delivered 7.5 million impressions through its digital efforts and more than 200,000 texts to potential voters.

“We learned that when voters learned about Mike Rogers’ plans to lower prices and fix the failing economy that Slotkin has rubber-stamped for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, that he will fight to secure our border, and that he is fighting for Michigan auto and manufacturing jobs, they would support him both in the primary and the general,” the memo reads.

Slotkin has so far received less support from outside groups, but that’s likely to change heading into the fall. A group called Community Change Voters spent $25,000 on calls seeking to persuade voters to cast their ballot for Slotkin.

Filling Kildee’s seat

Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet, who had the support of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, won the nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Dan Kildee in a competitive seat.

The DCCC named McDonald Rivet, a state senator, to its “Red to Blue” program in May, a distinction that gives candidates additional guidance and fundraising assistance.

McDonald Rivet had about 56 percent of the vote in a three-way race an hour after the AP called the race at 12:46 a.m. on Wednesday. Former Flint mayor Matt Collier had 29 percent and Pamela Pugh, the president of the Michigan State Board of Education, had 15 percent

She will face Republican Paul Junge, a former deputy district attorney who lost to Kildee two years ago by 10 percentage points. Junge also ran against Slotkin in 2020, losing by 4 percentage points.

Junge was leading the GOP primary with 72 percent of the vote when the AP called the race at 11:29 p.m. Eastern time. Mary Draves, a former executive at Dow Chemical Co., had 17 percent and small business owner Anthony Hudson had 11 percent.

The Winning for Women Action Fund, which supports Republican women candidates, spent $385,000 boosting Draves and opposing Junge.

But Junge outraised Draves, including putting in $2 million of his own money.

Inside Elections rates the race as Tilt Democratic.

Barrett, Curts head into Toss-up race

Neither Republican Tom Barrett nor Democrat Curtis Hertel faced a primary challenge on their way to a November matchup in one of the most competitive districts nationwide.

Hertel had $3.3 million on hand as of July 17, while Barrett had $1.2 million. Americans for Prosperity has already spent $57,000 to boost Barrett.

Barrett, a former state senator, challenged Slotkin two years ago, losing by 5.4 percentage points. It was Slotkin’s largest margin of victory in her three House races.

Hertel is also a former state senator and worked for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s administration before stepping down to run for Congress.

An Inside Elections poll conducted last month by Noble Predictive Insights found Barrett was leading Hertel 48 percent to 41 percent. The poll was conducted between July 8 and July 11, before President Joe Biden left the presidential race.

Inside Elections rates the race as a Toss-up.

Hudson to face Scholten

Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten will face Republican Paul Hudson, an attorney, as she runs for a second term in November.

Hudson defeated businessman Michael Markey and had 54 percent of the vote after the AP called the race at 12:04 a.m., on Wednesday.

Scholten easily won her own primary against Salim Al-Shatel. The Associated Press called her race at 9:58 p.m., and she was getting more than 90-percent of the vote as ballots were counted.

Inside Elections rates the Grand Rapids-area district race as Likely Democratic.

Scholten flipped the seat in 2022, after Republicans nominated John Gibbs instead of incumbent GOP Rep. Peter Meijer, who was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump in the final days of his presidency. Democrats spent heavily in the 3rd District to influence that primary, believing Meijer would have been a stronger opponent against Scholten.

Marlinga to challenge James

Republican Rep. John James will have a rematch with former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga in November, after Marlinga won a four-way primary Tuesday for the Democratic nomination in the 10th District.

Marlinga had 47 percent of the vote after the AP called the race at 12:06 a.m., on Wednesday. Financial planner Diane Young had 26 percent, with other candidates in the field in the teens.

James narrowly defeated Marlinga by 0.5 percentage points in 2022 and has been a rising star in his first term in the House. He got a seat on the Energy and Commerce Committee, as well as the Foreign Affairs Committee, and gave a primetime speech last month during the Republican National Convention.

James, who ran for Senate twice before his election to the House, has proven himself to be a strong fundraiser. He had $4 million on hand as of July 17. Marlinga had $104,000.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with ties to House GOP leaders, has so far spent $188,000 supporting James and another $10,000 to oppose Marlinga, while Americans for Prosperity’s political arm spent $55,000 to boost James.

A group called the Michigan Liberation Action Fund spent $62,000 to support Marlinga.

Inside Elections rates the race as Lean Republican.

Niels Lesniewski contributed to this report.