Then there's Arizona, where Monmouth University identified a decent lead for Biden among all registered voters, 48% to 44%. Different likely voter turnout models produce a tighter race: Higher turnout than 2016 narrowed the split to 48% Biden and 46% Trump, while lower turnout brought things to a dead tie at 47% each.
Another Arizona poll, again by the Washington Post and ABC News, found more positive results for the Trump campaign: Biden had a two-point lead among registered voters, but a one-point deficit among likely ones - again, all within the margin of error.
Georgia, however - which Clinton supporters dreamed of flipping but lost decisively - remains a tough nut for Democrats to crack, per a new Monmouth poll. Registered voters split 47% for Trump, 46% for Biden, Monmouth found. In the survey's alternative likely voter turnout models, Trump's lead improved slightly to 48% to 46% if turnout increased.
IN MAINE, AN INCUMBENT OUT OF SYNC WITH TRUMPISM
The Trump-Biden race isn't the only one on the ballot, but it affects many other races, especially for the Senate. In Maine, a new Suffolk University/Boston Globe survey finds Republican Sen. Susan Collins trailing Democratic challenger Sara Gideon by 5 points.
The survey found that 46% of respondents plan to rank Gideon first in the state's ranked-choice voting system, while Collins was the top choice of only 41%.
Collins is widely viewed as one of the remaining Republican moderates in the Senate. She's supported abortion rights and voted to uphold Obamacare, while voting to confirm conservative Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh and acquit Trump during the president's impeachment trial.
The result has left her with some unenthusiastic Trump supporters on one side and liberal critics and challengers on the other.
Now, another nomination battle for the high court has made Collins' long-running balancing act even harder. The senator says she will oppose any nominee prior to the election, and although the Suffolk/Globe survey was mostly conducted before Ginsburg's death, the Globe's interviews with respondents suggest the issue only complicates her bid.
"Few voters interviewed were impressed with Collins' announcement that she thinks the winner of the Nov. 3 election should make the nomination," the Globe's Victoria McCrae wrote.
SUPREME COURT BATTLE RAISES ELECTION STAKES EVEN HIGHER
Ginsburg's open Supreme Court seat entered the presidential race like a firecracker thrown into a packed room.
But the immediate question - whether Republicans should try to push through the new justice before the election - has voters split along clear partisan lines.
YouGov found that 51% of registered voters opposed Trump making an appointment before the next inauguration, versus 42% who said he should. While 84% of Democrats opposed a nomination now, 86% of Republicans favored one.
A poll by Reuters/Apso's worded the question slightly differently, asking if the winner in November should make the appointment, and got a different result: 62% of Americans - including 84% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans - favored having November's winner make the call. Presumably, many of the Republicans in the survey think Trump will win.
The loss of the liberal Ginsburg has motivated Democrats more than Republicans, a Morning Consult/Politico poll suggests. In one week, the number of Democrats who identified the Supreme Court as "very important" to how they will vote increased by 12 percentage points, while for Republicans the increase was only 4.
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