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Julian Castro bets that slow and steady wins the race

Ruben Navarrette Jr. on

SAN DIEGO -- What's really going on with Julian Castro?

There are two conflicting narratives. One suggests that the presidential bid of the former secretary of Housing and Urban Development -- who is trailing in fundraising and barely a blip in the polls -- is dead in the water. The other predicts that Castro could surprise everyone -- like, say, Donald Trump did -- and become what the current issue of New York magazine calls the "dark horse" of 2020 and the candidate to watch.

The truth is somewhere in-between.

On the one hand, it's been a long, hard slog for Castro -- and it's going to get longer and harder. My friend is trapped in a vicious cycle: He can't get the poll numbers that might earn media attention; and as long as the media ignores him, he can't raise money; and unless he shows he can raise money, he won't do better in the polls. Critics say he is too careful, calculating and reserved to get noticed in a field big enough to put together a marching band. In fact, it's not clear that he'll make it into the first round of debates -- for whatever that's worth in a bizarre year where the frontrunner, former Vice President Joe Biden, hasn't even entered the race yet.

On the other hand, there is a reason that a 44-year-old Mexican-American from the working-class west side of San Antonio has gotten this far. He excels at up-close retail politics, and he continues to impress and charm audiences in Iowa and New Hampshire. He is calm, measured, respectful and thoughtful. Even in a climate where Democratic candidates are trying to outdo one another by saying the most radical and outrageous thing to win the news cycle, Castro holds his tongue and plays it straight. He's betting the house that -- after four years of the Tweeter-in-Chief -- Americans are hankering for an adult to lead them again.

Besides the dueling narratives, there has also emerged one clear path for Castro to reach the upper tier of Democratic presidential hopefuls and sling shot to win, place or show in some of the early caucuses and primaries.

We'll get to that. But first, let's get one thing straight -- something that the national media always misses: You can't judge the Castro campaign by conventional standards. You need a whole new yardstick.

Sure, the candidate has an impressive resume -- Stanford University and Harvard Law School, local and federal experience, intellect mixed with social skills. It also doesn't hurt that he hails from a red state that looks like it's turning purple, or that he's part of an ethnic group (Latinos) that the Pew Research Center predicts will be the largest minority voting bloc in 2020.

But Castro also started at a disadvantage. While neither black nor white, he had to get the attention of a national media that only thinks in black and white.

 

Even if the national media were interested in covering Latinos -- and, with the exception of the immigration debate, they're really not -- they wouldn't have a clue where to start. If the major television networks and newspapers were based not in New York and Washington but in Dallas, Phoenix or Los Angeles, this would be a whole different ballgame.

Instead, Castro has to suffer the foolishness of being interviewed by white Ivy League reporters from East Coast newspapers who accompany him to Tex-Mex joints to give their stories flavor then invariably ask the same bland question: "Why don't you speak fluent Spanish?"

Castro should say what the other 57 million Latinos in the United States are thinking: "Maybe because 80 percent of Latinos speak only English or a mixture of both languages. How's your German, Italian, French or Hebrew?"

Write this down. Castro isn't just another white male riding the wave of privilege and acceptance. He's Neil Armstrong. As the first full-blooded Latino running for president, he can "win" even if he loses. He just needs to stay sober, and not follow the others as they veer off the rails. No matter what happens, his brand will be intact. And he'll live to fight another day.

Of course, there is also that path. Those who fly too close to the sun get burned -- or flame out or crack up. It's early. The Iowa caucuses aren't for 10 months. And when the voting starts, the one thing you don't want to be is the frontrunner. Iowans don't like the elites in Washington and New York telling them whom to vote for. They make their own choices. And, as other candidates make mistakes or make wild statements, those folks in the heartland might choose to cast their lot with that nice young man from San Antonio who made such a good impression.

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Ruben Navarrette's email address is ruben@rubennavarrette.com. His daily podcast, "Navarrette Nation," is available through every podcast app.

(c) 2019, The Washington Post Writers Group


 

 

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