The Mexican Enigma

SAN DIEGO -- A few weeks ago while in Mexico City, I toured the fortified headquarters of the policia federal. Our law enforcement friends south of the border were eager to show off the heavy weaponry they received from the United States. The equipment -- which helps make up $1.4 billion in funding promised under the Merida Initiative and which includes big-ticket items such as Black Hawk helicopters -- is supposed to be used in the Mexican government's war against the drug cartels.

That's fine. Except for one thing: Our agreement was with outgoing Mexican President Felipe Calderon. President-elect Enrique Pena Nieto -- who comes from a rival party that has promised to end the violence -- has been noncommittal about whether he intends to continue the drug war and, if he does press ahead, to fight it in the same way that Calderon did.

So if Pena Nieto works out an accommodation with the drug cartels, as many of his supporters hope he will, what will the federales use the Black Hawks for? Jaywalking?

The Mexican president-elect should have been asked that question Tuesday when he met with President Obama at the White House.

I had the chance to meet Pena Nieto and hear what the 46-year-old lawyer has planned for his country. The meeting was off the record, and no questions were permitted.

The new leader of the Institutional Revolutionary Party is charismatic, handsome and likable. And while the Mexican intelligentsia has questioned his smarts and gravitas, Pena Nieto seems to have an abundance of that one quality that great politicians tend to have: social skills.

As for the plans he has discussed publicly, they don't seem to represent a total reversal of the course charted by Calderon. Pena Nieto's policies on U.S.-Mexico relations, migration, economic development and the drug war are likely to be different from Calderon's -- but only slightly. Expect more nuance and different roads that lead to the same place.

Whereas Calderon's goal seems to have been to destroy the cartels and arrest or kill as many drug lords as possible, Pena Nieto seems more interested in protecting the Mexican people and confiscating shipments of drugs, money and guns.

The cartels aren't going to like that. So how do you go about protecting the people when the bad guys are likely to respond with violence and terrorize the population?

Whereas Calderon urged the United States to legalize undocumented immigrants and fight racist legislative screeds such as the Arizona immigration law, Pena Nieto will likely be more focused on using Mexican consulates in the United States to protect the rights of Mexican nationals.

But, when you're the president of Mexico, how do you do this without creating a backlash from Americans who will accuse you of meddling and wonder where your concern for these migrants was before they left in search of greener pastures?

Mexico and the United States are stuck with each other. There is no more important partner for either country. On every issue, what happens on one side of the border always spills over to the other.

Of course, the relationship isn't just important but complicated. Mexicans and Americans don't just share a common border. They also share a common national pastime -- i.e., blaming their problems on each other.

Ask Mexicans why they have not profited more from the North American Free Trade Agreement, the pact they signed in 1992 with Canada and the United States, and they'll tell you it is because the Americans made it impossible for Mexican goods to get a fair price. Ask Americans why there are so many illegal immigrants in the United States, and they'll tell you it is because Mexicans don't take care of their own people and don't provide enough jobs to keep them from going north.

When he is sworn in as president on Dec. 1, Pena Nieto will have the power to help change this paradigm. And yet, because of the value of keeping the United States as a handy foil to blame when things go wrong, he's likely to keep this telenovela going.

That would be a big mistake. Both countries deserve better. This relationship needs a strong dose of honesty, candor and clarity. Whether the issue is drugs, immigration, trade or any other matter that unites our countries, Americans need to know Mexico's intentions.

Only then can we decide whether we should be in our neighbor's corner. Or on its case.

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Ruben Navarrette's email address is ruben@rubennavarrette.com.