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Dems Have Edge, but Presidency Still in Play

Michael Barone on

A funny thing happened as I was looking at the political map of this year's presidential election: It began to look like the map of the presidential election of 2004.

I'm not talking about the superficial similarity, the fact that in both elections an incumbent president beat a challenger from Massachusetts by a 51 to 48 percent popular vote margin.

I'm talking about the fact that the large majority of states voted just a little bit more Democratic in 2012 than they did in 2004.

Enough to give 2012 nominee Barack Obama 332 electoral votes, far more than 2004 nominee John Kerry's 252. But not enough to change the political balance of the nation or the various regions very much.

At current count -- the numbers may change a bit as California and a few other states waddle in with late tabulations -- Barack Obama's 50.73 percent of the popular vote exceeds John Kerry's 48.26 percent by 2.46 percent. (Eerily, George W. Bush's final percentage was also 50.73 percent.)

Using rounded-off whole percentages, Obama ran 1 or 2 percent ahead of Kerry in nine states and the District of Columbia, with 81 electoral votes. They include target states New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, which Kerry won, and Ohio, which he lost.

 

Obama ran 3 or 4 percent ahead of Kerry in more states, 20. These states have 243 electoral votes. They include 2012 target states Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin.

George W. Bush carried all of those target states in 2004 except Wisconsin, which he lost by 11,384 votes. Clearly Hispanic voters, and the differences between Bush and Mitt Romney on immigration and in attitude, helped move Colorado, Nevada and, by a very narrow margin, Florida from the Republican column in 2004 to the Democratic column in 2012.

But Obama's winning percentages in these three states -- 50 percent in Florida, 51 percent in Colorado and 52 percent in Nevada -- don't suggest that Republicans will never be competitive there again.

As for Iowa and Wisconsin, they were both exceedingly close in both 2000 and 2004, both were solid for Obama in 2008, and this time they gave him 52 and 53 percent of their votes.

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