From the Right



The 2010s look more like Trump's ideal America than Obama's

Michael Barone on

This reflects the 2008-14 halt in net immigration from Mexico. States that used to get many Mexican immigrants had only slightly above-average immigration rates, 3 percent in California and Texas, or were below average, 1.7 percent in Illinois. And immigration rates were below the national average in Nevada and Arizona, immigration magnets before 2008.

Higher immigration rates were registered in Florida, at 5 percent (the nation's highest), and in states clustered around New York, Boston and Washington -- 3 to 4 percent in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Maryland and Virginia, with D.C. at 5 percent.

Florida's gains reflect immigrants from Latin America south of Mexico, but the others represent increased immigration from Asia, which in recent years has produced more arrivals than Latin America -- a reversal of the 1982-2007 trend. Increased Asian immigration is reflected also in the above-national-average immigration rates in Hawaii and Washington state.

Census data show Asian concentrations in university communities and medical centers. Of course, not all Asian immigrants are high-skilled techies or doctors, but overall, the immigration inflow in the 2010s has been more high-skilled and substantially less low-skilled than before.

All of which suggests a counterintuitive hypothesis, that the patterns of internal and immigrant migration of 2010-17 look less like Barack Obama's ideal America and more like Donald Trump's.


The flight from high-tax to low-tax states, diminished but higher-skilled immigration, the fracking boom in North Dakota, the decline in hip Vermont -- you might even say 45 started winning even when 44 was in office.


Michael Barone is a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and longtime co-author of The Almanac of American Politics.

Copyright 2018 U.S. News and World Report. Distibuted by Creators Syndicate Inc.


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