From the Right

/

Politics

Won't Voters Ever Ask Government to LEAVE PEOPLE ALONE?

John Stossel on

The Good: We have divided government. Since Democrats no longer control Congress, they can't bankrupt America quite so fast!

The Bad: Prediction markets, which I touted as the best guide to elections, didn't do so well. Yes, they correctly said Republicans would take the House, but they'd also predicted Republicans would take the Senate. Polls and statistical modelers like Nate Silver did a bit better this time. They also said Republicans would win both, but they gave them only a slight edge.

As I write this Wednesday morning, Republicans have (according to ElectionBettingOdds.com, the site Maxim Lott created that tracks election betting around the world) a 19% chance of winning the Senate.

Nineteen percent isn't zero; they could still win the Senate, but Republicans don't have the 60-70% chance that bettors gave them in recent weeks.

The Good: Bettors at least adjust their predictions quickly.

Last night, while clods on TV still said "Democrats and Republicans battle for control of the House (CBS)," those of us who follow the betting already knew that Republicans would win the House.

 

Historically, bettors have a great track record. Across 730 candidate chances we've tracked, when something is expected to happen 70% of the time, it actually happens about 70% of the time.

That's because people with money on the line try harder than pundits to be right. They also adjust quickly when they see they've made a mistake.

At 8:23 p.m., with just 12% of the New Hampshire vote counted, bettors gave Democrat Maggie Hassan more than a 90% chance of winning the Senate seat, up from 63% earlier in the day. You wouldn't have noticed that shift watching TV. The AP didn't call the race until 11:39 p.m.

Bettors also failed to predict Trump's win in 2016. But they at least gave him a 20% chance, much higher than most "expert" statistical modelers, like the Princeton Election Consortium, which gave him an absurd 0.01% chance.

...continued

swipe to next page
Copyright 2022 Creators Syndicate, Inc.
 

 

Comics

A.F. Branco John Darkow Dana Summers Peter Kuper Monte Wolverton Bill Bramhall