Tropical Storm Debby forecast to rapidly intensify into hurricane before Florida landfall

Tropical Storm Debby strengthened Sunday morning with a projected path to hit Florida’s Gulf Coast as a hurricane on Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In its 11 a.m. advisory Sunday, the NHC said the center of Debby was located 130 miles west-southwest of Tampa and 160 miles south-southwest of Cedar Key, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph as it moves north-northwest at 13 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 140 miles.

The National Weather Service issued a tornado watch for much of Florida including Orange, Osceola, Lake, Volusia and Polk counties in Central Florida as of 11 a.m. that lasts through 8 p.m.

The system has grown since becoming Tropical Depression Four late Friday and developing into a tropical storm on Saturday. It’s forecast to continue to intensify as it moves through the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico on its way to a landfall on Florida’s Big Bend south of Tallahassee.

“You could have serious intensification between now and landfall,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis during a press conference at the state’s Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee. “It could get up to 85, 90, 95 mph sustained wind. That is absolutely possible, particularly in parts of the state like here in Tallahassee. There’s going to be a lot of trees that are going to fall down. You’re going to have debris. You are going to have power interruption so just prepare for that.”

He said the state Department of Emergency Management has identified 17,000 lineman to work on power outages.

“We have assets in place in advance of the storm like we always do, and near the predicted areas of most severe impact,” DeSantis said, who noted the state was putting in floodwater protection around power substations for the first time.

He warned people to not focus on just the center path of the system.

“This is a big storm. I mean, you’re gonna have rain that’s going to be far beyond the center of the storm,” he said. “So just prepare for that just because you’re not in the eye of the storm does not mean you are not going to have major, major impacts from the storm.”

Department of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said the slow-moving system could bring torrential rainfall to some areas.

“We’re going to be into a catastrophic rain situation where we have situations in Florida that will receive 15 maybe as high as 20 inches of rain,” Guthrie said.

He also warned about storm surge for coastal areas as some counties have issued mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders.

“You could be left with no time to take action if you haven’t already evacuated as instructed,” Guthrie said. “The time to do that is now.”

He also reminded Floridians to avoid floodwaters after the storm passes.

“It is never safe to be in floodwaters, and there can be many, many hidden hazards such as live electrical wires, displaced wild animals, chemicals and hazardous waste,” Guthrie said. “Simply put, floodwaters are unhealthy and unsafe to be in, so do not walk or drive into them.”

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee with a hurricane watch running from west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass near Apalachicola, and east of the Suwannee River down to Yankeetown south of Cedar Key.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the west coast of Florida from East Cape Sable south of Naples north to the Suwannee River. A tropical storm watch is in effect on Florida’s Panhandle coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, as well as on the Georgia coast from mouth of the St. Mary’s River to the South Santee River, South Carolina.

A storm surge warning is in effect for middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay and a storm surge watch from Bonita Beach north to Longboat Key including Charlotte Harbor, and in Georgia from the St. Mary’s River to the South Santee River.

The system’s path is expected to make a northward turn Sunday and slower northeastern motion on Monday and Tuesday.

“On the forecast track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist John Cangialosi. “Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.”

The latest advisory has Debby becoming a hurricane before it hits the Big Bend coast and weakening when it goes onshore.

The forecast cone had shifted farther north and west since Friday, but its projected landfall south of Tallahassee has remained consistent among Saturday advisories into Sunday. It’s forecast to strike Monday morning with sustained winds of 90 mph, which would make it a Category 1 hurricane with gusts of 115 mph. Hurricane Idalia made landfall on the Big Bend in 2023 as a Category 3 hurricane.

“Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the hurricane watch areas early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected to arrive this evening,” Cangialosi said. “Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys during the next several hours, and in the Florida Panhandle on Monday.”

In addition, storm surge is forecast to be as high as 10 feet from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River, 4-7 feet from Yankeetown to the Suwannee River, 4-6 feet from the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, 3-5 feet from Aripeka to Yankeetown and from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, and 2-4 feet Bonita Beach to Aripeka as well as Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

The NHC expects rainfall from 6 to 12 inches with some areas getting up to 18 inches across portions of Florida and the Southeast U.S. this weekend and through Thursday morning that could cause flash and urban flooding as well as some isolated river flooding.

“A few tornadoes are possible through Monday morning, mainly over western and northern Florida and southern Georgia,” the NHC advisory said.

The system has been building the last few days as a tropical wave that stretched hundreds of miles, producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms moving across the northern Caribbean islands and southeastern Bahamas.

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared most counties under a state of emergency earlier this week. Floods could ensue if the system continued its current slow course or even stalled over the Florida peninsula.

The Florida National Guard has around 3,000 service members readying for response efforts, the governor’s office had stated previously in an email.

In addition, 70 members of the Florida State Guard along with nine shallow water vessels, 10 UTVs and two amphibious rescue vehicles have been staged for deployment. Seven search and rescue crews are prepared to deploy from Camp Blanding. Also, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission has readied high-water vehicles and all other storm response resources statewide.

For Central Florida, the National Weather Service in Melbourne forecasts 2-4 inches of rain in some areas with 4-6 inches north of Interstate 4 over the weekend and a tropical storm watch remained in effect Saturday for Lake County, although the forecast path of the system had shifted more west since Friday.

The threat of tornadoes has increased for the region on Sunday, forecasters said. One tornado warning was issued late Saturday in Broward County as bands from Debby moved over South Florida.

Also on Sunday, the NHC began tracking a new system with a chance to form into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook Sunday, the tropical wave was located a few hundred miles east of the Caribbean’s Windward Islands with an area of showers and thunderstorms.

“Some slow development of this system is possible over the next week as the system moves quickly westward at around 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands early this week and moving into the central and western Caribbean by the mid to latter part of this week,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 20% in the next seven days.

If it were to form into a named storm, it could take on the name Tropical Storm Ernesto.

Tropical Storm Debby became the fourth official system of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The others were Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but the height of storm formation runs from mid-August into October.

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