System forecast to become Tropical Storm Debby, target Florida Gulf Coast, hurricane center says

ORLANDO, Fla. — After forming as Tropical Depression Four late Friday, the National Hurricane Center forecasts the system will grow into Tropical Storm Debby on Saturday and head for Florida’s Gulf Coast over the weekend.

In its 11 a.m. advisory, the NHC said the center of TD 4 was located about 40 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba, and 125 miles south of Key West with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph as it moves west-northwest at 15 mph. The wind speeds had increased from 30 mph earlier Saturday.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas and on Florida’s west coast from East Cape Sable in the far southwest of the Florida peninsula north to Yankeetown just south of Cedar Key. A hurricane watch runs Yankeetown north to Indian Pass west of Apalachicola. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Channel 5 Bridge.

A storm surge warning is in effect from Aripeka north of Tampa north to the Aucilla River south of Tallahassee. A storm surge watch is in effect for Bonita Beach near Naples north to Aripeka including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor and west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass.

“A turn toward the northwest is forecast today, followed by a northward motion on Sunday and then a slower northeastward motion Sunday night and Monday,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven. “On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across western Cuba this morning, and then move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, reaching the Florida Gulf coast late Sunday or Monday.”

The intensity is expected to increase into what could become Tropical Storm Debby as early as today with further strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.

“Tropical Depression Four has become somewhat better organized this morning, with the circulation becoming better defined over western Cuba and curved convective bands forming close to the center in the southern semicircle,” Beven said. “A faster rate of development is likely once the system gets better organized, and the cyclone is likely to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches to the northern Gulf coast.”

The forecast cone continues to shift further north and west since Friday, with a projected landfall possible in the Big Bend part of Florida south of Tallahassee on Monday morning with winds shy of hurricane strength, but still 70 mph sustained winds and gusts of 85 mph. Hurricane Idalia made landfall on the Big Bend in 2023 as a Category 3 hurricane.

“Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier on Sunday,” Beven said. “Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the warning areas beginning later today and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys later today or tonight, and in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are currently occurring over the Florida Keys.”

In addition, storm surge is forecast to be as high as 5 feet from Aripeka to the Aucilla River, and from 2-4 feet from Bonita Beach to Aripeka and in Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, and from the Aucilla River to Indian Pass.

The NHC expects rainfall from 5 to 10 inches with some areas getting up to 15 inches across portions of Florida and the Southeast U.S. this weekend and through Thursday morning that could cause flash and urban flooding as well as some isolated river flooding.

The system has been building the last few days as a tropical wave that stretched hundreds of miles producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms moving across the northern Caribbean islands and southeastern Bahamas.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared most Florida counties under a state of emergency earlier this week. Floods could ensue if the system continued its current slow course or even stalled over the Florida peninsula.

The Florida Department of Emergency Management has activated the State Emergency Operations Center while the Florida National Guard has around 3,000 service members readying for response efforts, the governor’s office stated in an email.

In addition, 70 members of the Florida State Guard along with nine shallow water vessels, 10 UTVs and two amphibious rescue vehicles have been staged for deployment. Seven search and rescue crews are prepared to deploy from Camp Blanding. Also, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission has readied high-water vehicles and all other storm response resources statewide.

For central Florida, the National Weather Service in Melbourne forecasts 2-4 inches of rain in some areas with 4-6 inches north of Interstate 4 over the weekend and a tropical storm watch remained in effect Saturday for Lake County, although the forecast path of the system had shifted more west since Friday.

“By this evening, the out rain bands of the tropical cyclone are forecast to begin to push into east central Florida, with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms expected,” said NWS Melbourne Meteorologist Melissa Watson. “Main storm threats with these outer rainbands will beheavy rainfall. However an additional threat of gusty winds to tropical storm force, and a tornado or two can not be ruled out.”

Several locations around Orange, Lake, Seminole and Volusia counties began providing sandbag supplies on Friday. The region suffered serious flooding during Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Nicole in 2022.

Farther south, according to NWS Miami, some areas over the weekend could see up from 4-8 inches of rain starting Saturday. Some areas could top 12 inches and a flood watch is in effect for South Florida.

“Regardless of development, this will bring a surge of deep tropical moisture to the region which will result in the potential for excessive rainfall and localized flooding throughout the day on Saturday,” said NWS Miami Meteorologist Chuck Caracozza. “What still remains highly uncertain is the details of exactly where the heaviest rainfall will occur.”

Tropical Depression Four became the fourth official system of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The others were Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but the height of storm formation runs from mid-August into October.