Potential tropical cyclone could track near Outer Banks next week

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, a wave meteorologists are watching near Cuba, has the potential to track up the East Coast toward the Outer Banks.

The National Hurricane Center began advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four at 11 a.m. Friday. Tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for areas in Florida. In a forecast discussion from the center, meteorologists said development of the storm will likely be slow as it moves over Cuba, and it will likely become a tropical depression after it moves offshore. A tropical depression consists of a cyclone with sustained winds of 38 mph or less, while a tropical storm consists of maximum sustained winds of 39 mph to 73 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the straits of Florida and the opening Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. It will then move near the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that time, the system could cross the northern Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States. Based on the current forecast track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four would arrive off the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday morning.

“The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is expected,” the discussion read. “The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the Atlantic.”

Water in the Gulf of Mexico is about 87 degrees, according to Accuweather. The center reported maximum winds in the storm are at about 30 mph. In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned that this year could be “extraordinary” for hurricane conditions.

NOAA is predicting 17-25 named storms, which have winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those named storms, 8 to 13 will become hurricanes with at least 74 mph winds, and of those, 4 to 7 could become “major hurricanes.”

If this weekend’s storm develops, it will be named Debby.

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