Tropical storm watch issued for Florida Keys ahead of potential west coast landfall

MIAMI — The Florida Keys and much of Florida’s west coast are under a tropical storm watch as a messy tropical wave rolls over Cuba and toward the state.

The National Hurricane Center released its first cone for the potential tropical storm Friday morning, which showed a track crossing over the Keys on Saturday, curving into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and making landfall north of Tampa Bay on Monday.

The system is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Debby as soon as Saturday.

On Thursday evening, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for most of the counties in the state that could be affected by the storm. South Florida wasn’t included, although the weather office has warned there could be heavy rainfall over the weekend, leading to some flooding.

The Keys, Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor could see up to three feet of storm surge.

As of 11 a.m., the hurricane center said the system was about 420 miles southeast of Key West and headed west-northwest at 16 mph with maximum sustained winds of 30mph.

In the discussion, forecasters with the hurricane center said it wasn’t clear exactly where the storm could make landfall in Florida, and that potential spot may shift over the coming days.

“The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario. However, since the forecast track is almost parallel to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the southeast coast of the U. S., only a small change in the track could lead to large changes in which land areas receive any landfalls and the biggest impacts,” they wrote.

Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly into the tropical wave, currently located over eastern Cuba, later Friday. Their data will help inform the models that predict where the storm will go.