South Florida could get drenched as tropical wave passes on its way to the Gulf of Mexico

South Florida and the Florida Keys are in for a rainy weekend as a disorganized tropical wave — on the verge of strengthening into a tropical depression — is set to pass south of the state on Saturday.

Florida could see tropical storm watches or warnings later Friday in advance of the system, which would be named Debby. Thursday evening, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for most of the counties in the state that could be affected by the storm. South Florida wasn’t included.

The National Hurricane Center has been tracking the tropical wave for a week and steadily upping its chances of getting its act together. By Friday morning, forecasters have pegged its chances of development at 60% in the next two days and 90% in the next seven.

The hurricane center said the system is likely to organize into a tropical depression as it crosses the Florida Straits on Saturday or when it emerges into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

There is no official track or cone yet for this storm, but early models have steadily locked into a path that takes it up Florida’s west coast over the next few days. As of Friday morning, most of those models also suggest the storm could re-curve into the Big Bend area as a tropical storm early next week.

But experts warn that these models aren’t the best at capturing a yet-unformed storm, and urge Florida residents to stay tuned for official predictions.

“Deterministic model solutions may shift further from run to run and should be taken with a grain of salt,” the Miami office of the National Weather Service wrote Friday morning. “The main takeaway is that there is certainly the potential for heavy rainfall across South Florida on Saturday and Sunday with a potential extension of heavy rainfall into early next week depending on the eventual trajectory of the system.”

Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly into the tropical wave, currently located over eastern Cuba, later Friday. Their data will help inform the models that predict where the storm will go.