Hurricane center ups chances to 60% tropical system could form, threaten Florida

ORLANDO — The National Hurricane Center increased the odds a system developing in the Atlantic could turn into the season’s next tropical depression or storm with a projected path that could threaten Florida.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook Tuesday, an area of disturbed weather in the central Atlantic has now been absorbed into a swift-moving tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Caribbean’s Lesser Antilles. For now it has limited shower activity because of dry air.

“Conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist John Cangialosi. “Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.”

The NHC gives it a 60% chance to develop in the next seven days, which is up slightly from Monday’s forecast.

In the NHC’s tropical discussion, forecasters detailed the wave’s speed moving west at around 17 mph.

“Winds and seas associated with a vigorous tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands tonight into Wednesday, then move to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thursday, across the Bahamas Friday and Friday night and north-northeast of the Bahamas Saturday and Saturday night,” said tropical analysis forecaster Eric Christensen. “There is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Bahamas.”

The NHC’s wide swath of the system’s potential path shifted north since Monday but all of Florida’s peninsula remains in the potential path.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne is keeping watch to see how it may affect the state.

“There is increasing uncertainty in rain chances Sunday onward as we continue to monitor model trends of an area of interest in the tropics,” said NWS meteorologist Rob Haley. “There continues to be a fair amount of disagreement between models, and it is still too early to determine what, if any, impacts could occur locally.”

The system could remain disorganized and out in the Atlantic, or become the fourth tracked system of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

If it were to gain enough power, it could form into Tropical Storm Debby.

The season so far saw the early formation of Hurricane Beryl that cut a deadly path from the Caribbean into Mexico and into Texas. It’s been nearly three weeks, though, since the NHC issued advisories on any systems.

The height of hurricane season runs form mid-August into October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast an above average year in the Atlantic with 17 to 25 named storms, of which eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes, and four to seven of those becoming major hurricanes.

Hurricane season officially runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

-------