System near Caribbean could be tropical depression soon. Will it come to Florida? What models say

Michelle Marchante, Miami Herald on

Published in Weather News

MIAMI — The Atlantic is packed — everywhere you look, there’s a system to watch.

Forecasters on Wednesday are watching five systems, including one near the Caribbean that Florida needs to keep a close eye on.

That system is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center expects the system will turn into a tropical depression within the next couple of days. Computer models are also in agreement that the system could strengthen into Tropical Storm Hermine.

The hurricane center is giving the disturbance a 70% chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of formation through the next five days.

Forecasters expect the system will move west-northwest across the southern Windward Islands Wednesday, and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. However, after that, the models split on where it will go. Forecasters say it’s also too soon to know what type of hazards the system could bring to Florida, if any.

“Early model runs show it could impact the U.S. However, it depends on how fast and strong it gets,” WSVN meteorologist Vivian Gonzalez said on Twitter Wednesday morning.


A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate the system Wednesday night.

“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later this week,” the hurricane center noted in its advisory at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday.

Also on forecasters’ radar: Hurricane Fiona, a powerful Category 4 storm forecast to approach Bermuda late Thursday. Tropical Storm Gaston is swirling in the north-central Atlantic, far from land. And two other disturbances in the eastern Atlantic, one which could turn into a tropical depression in the next several days.

Here’s a forecast breakdown:


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