There’s almost no chance for the tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean to develop into a depression, according to forecasters.
As of 8 a.m. Thursday the disturbance in the Atlantic has a near 0% chance of developing in the next five days and a near 0% chance of developing in the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The tropical wave had a 40% chance of developing as recently as Monday, but unfavorable conditions are expected to prevent the system from further growth.
“It’s just poorly organized,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
However, there’s still a good chance Atlantic storm activity ramps up soon as we enter what is traditionally the busiest part of hurricane season.
“The last couple of seasons have been so busy it makes it seem like this one is slow,” Pydynowski said. “The heart of the season is really usually that Aug. 15, Aug. 20 date to maybe the end of, or at least late October. So you really have the two months in there where you pick up the majority of your storms.
“Even though we’ve only had three [named storms in 2022], we are sort of on pace. How this season turns out is going to be determined by how any storms we get during the heart of the season.”
Even if the tropical wave in the Atlantic took advantage of a small window for developing, it likely wouldn’t have gone beyond a depression because of dry air and wind shear, forecasters said.
The next named storm to form will be Danielle.
It appears the Atlantic could be quiet for a week or so after this tropical wave, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.