MIAMI -- The National Hurricane Center sent its Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft into a disturbance churning just south of the Florida Keys and the north end of the Bahamas on Saturday morning.
In its 2 p.m. advisory, the center said the low pressure system had become better defined and its associated showers and thunderstorms were gradually organizing.
"If these trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated on this system as a tropical or subtropical depression later today," the hurricane center said.
A tropical storm watch could be issued for the North Carolina coast later Saturday.
The center gives the system a near 100% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical storm sometime Saturday afternoon or evening. If so, it would be the first named storm of the 2020 hurricane season.
Its name would be Arthur, and this would become the sixth season in a row in which a named storm has formed before the official June 1 start of hurricane season.
Think of it like a false start at an Olympics swimming or track and field race. There, you may get one chance to jump the gun before being disqualified. Nature, however, plays by its own rules.
The system is expected to move north-northeastward over the Atlantic waters east of Florida. On Sunday, and into early in the week, Arthur -- if it is named -- is expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic near or east of the Carolinas, the hurricane center said.
At the most practical sense, the state is getting another run through of what to expect for the next six months or so until hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
Prepare. Prepare. Prepare.